equity-service · cortex · 2026-09-23

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid

Eleven mainboard issues open or opening, read at 11:45 and deepened at 12:45 IST on 23 September across Trendlyne (detail pages and the brokerage-report list), Chittorgarh, the IPO Watch GMP board, Value Research, anchor circulars and independent reviews. Expected listing is the GMP percentage less 2.6 points — the overstatement backtest_gmp measured over 295 listings (r = 0.87); a zero GMP has averaged −6.6% and listed positive 29% of the time. Apply as: retail is one ₹15k lot by lottery; sHNI is ₹2–10L, one-third of the 15% NII quota, a lottery of one ₹2L lot; bHNI is above ₹10L and proportionate — and odds scale with the size of the category's book, so a ₹1,000 Cr issue beats a ₹150 Cr one at the same oversubscription. None of this touches the ₹60L. Applied 23 Sep: Adroit Industries, HNI ₹2L+.

IPOcallGMPGMP %expected listingapply ashorizonbook
Adroit IndustriesAPPLY₹34+25.4%~+23%sHNI ₹2–10L (applied)Listing-day sell; hold a tranche if QIB ≥ 5xday 1: 1.1x · retail 1.69x · QIB 0
MoneyviewAPPLY₹11+32.4%~+30%Retail 1 lot + sHNI ₹2LSell 70% on listing; hold 30% only on clean Q2 credit costsopens 24th · anchor book 23rd
Orient CablesAPPLY₹34+12.5%~+10%Retail 1 lot; sHNI if GMP ≥ ₹30 on day 3Sell half on listing, hold halfanchor 24 Sep · retail ₹193 Cr
A-One SteelsAPPLY, small₹50+12.3%~+10%Retail 1 lot onlyListing-day sell, no holdanchor 23 Sep · no names published
ArMee InfotechSKIP₹46+12.3%~+10%——quota retail 52.5% / NII 22.5% / QIB 25%
German Green SteelSKIP — watch after listing₹15+10.8%~+8%—Buy post-listing only at/below book, if steel holdsanchor 24 Sep · Systematix, IIFL, CLSA
Swastika InfraSKIP — revisit₹8+4.3%~+2%—Post-listing study if the order book converts—
Runwal EnterprisesSKIP₹18+5.9%~+3%——ICICI Sec + Jefferies
Varmora GranitoAVOID₹5+3.4%~+1%——0.15x on day 2 · QIB 0.00x · closes today
Elevate CampusesAVOID at IPO₹5+1.4%~−1%—Revisit below ~₹270 with verified debt reductionanchors ₹945 Cr · retail quota only 10%
AceVector (Snapdeal)AVOID₹0+0.0%~−7%——anchor 24 Sep · SoftBank and Nexus selling

Brokerage “Subscribe” notes — Ventura in particular — cover nearly every issue and are not a signal; a Neutral or an Avoid from any house is. Watch before the books close: Adroit’s QIB line on Friday, Moneyview’s and Orient’s anchor lists, and whether Varmora reaches 1x.

Adroit Industries

APPLY

23–25 Sep · band ₹134 · ₹151 Cr · 88% fresh / 12% OFS

best of the boardsmall issueQIB 0 on day 1
expected listing~+23%
GMP ₹34 · +25.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
23.0x
RoE
22.5%
D/E
0.41
EBITDA margin
27.7%
retail slice
₹53 Cr
odds at 20x
~5%

Sixty-year driveline maker — propeller shafts, Dewas MP, >90% exports to 32 countries. FY24→FY26 revenue 125→143 Cr, PAT 14.5→26.2 Cr (+44%), EBITDA margin 23.7→27.7% against 11–16% for GNA Axles, Talbros and Hindustan Hardy; 88% fresh, into Dewas and Pithampur capex. Anchors ₹45.2 Cr from six domestic AIFs (Abakkus ₹10 Cr, Chhattisgarh Investments ₹10 Cr, Valour ₹7.5 Cr, Cognizant Capital ₹7.5 Cr, Aarth ₹5.2 Cr, Fortune Hands ₹5 Cr) — no mutual fund, which is adequate rather than a stamp. Risks: top-10 customers 67% of revenue, top-10 suppliers 92% of purchases, US concentration, 237-day working capital, borrowings 8→52 Cr in a year. What flips the call: QIB under 1x at Friday's close with retail above 5x is the weak-listing pattern — sell the whole allotment at the open.

Moneyview

APPLY

24–28 Sep · band ₹34 · ₹1,092 Cr · 69% fresh / 31% OFS

highest GMPRBI/DLG riskbig retail slice
expected listing~+30%
GMP ₹11 · +32.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E FY26
21.5x
P/E annualised
8.6x
P/B
2.6
managed AUM
₹21,380 Cr
retail slice
₹382 Cr
promoters post
20%

Digital personal-loan platform: 140M registered users, 9.7M monetised, 48 lending partners. FY26 revenue +43% to 3,404 Cr but PAT +1% to 243 Cr — the margin compression is the number to understand, and the June quarter (PAT 174 Cr) says it may have turned; expenses fell 56%→35% of income FY24→FY26. Lead managers Axis, BofA, IIFL, Kotak. Risks: the default-loss-guarantee model is exactly where RBI has been tightening; unsecured book; top-10 partners 37% of revenue; no NPA or credit-cost disclosure in the summaries; 31% OFS; the issue was trimmed to a ~$624M valuation. As a hold this is a regulatory bet; as a listing trade it is the strongest here. Read tonight's anchor list — domestic mutual funds would de-risk it.

Orient Cables

APPLY

25–29 Sep · band ₹272 · ₹552 Cr · 58% fresh / 42% OFS

sector IMPROVING on our RRGPAT flat on +42% revenue
expected listing~+10%
GMP ₹34 · +12.5% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
23.6x
RoE
25.8%
D/E
0.95
market share
22.9%
peers
12–16x
promoters post
82%

#4 in networking cables — broadband, telecom, data centres, e-mobility. FY26 revenue +42% to 1,182 Cr, PAT flat at 54 Cr as copper pass-through took the margin 6.4→4.6%; the June-26 quarter recovered to PAT 33 Cr and EBITDA 11.2%, which is the question answered if it holds. ₹155 Cr of proceeds to debt, ₹92 Cr capex; JM + IIFL. Electrical/power equipment is IMPROVING on our own RRG at rank 29 — the one issue here in a sector the scan likes. 42% OFS is the caveat.

A-One Steels

APPLY, small

24–28 Sep · band ₹405 · ₹405 Cr · 88% fresh / 12% OFS

one-year PAT jumpOCF −40%
expected listing~+10%
GMP ₹50 · +12.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
24.6x
RoE
14.7%
D/E
1.17
capacity
1.73 MTPA
peers
17–21x
to debt
₹250 Cr

Southern integrated steel, six plants in Karnataka and Andhra, green power under 15–25-year PPAs. FY26 revenue 4,202 Cr (+18%), PAT 7.7→127 Cr as EBITDA margin went 4.9→7.3%. Against it: the profit jump is one year old, operating cash flow fell ~40% to 63 Cr — profit quality unproven — and recent steel listings trade at 17–21x. PL Capital + Khambatta. One retail lot for the pop; it will trade on steel prices, not on this IPO.

ArMee Infotech

SKIP

23–25 Sep · band ₹375 · ₹300 Cr · fresh-heavy

retail-heavy quotaPAT below FY24RoCE 57→24%
expected listing~+10%
GMP ₹46 · +12.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E
26.2x
PAT margin
3.3%
borrowings
48→174 Cr
contingent liab.
₹129 Cr
bankers' record
7 of 9 below issue

IT infrastructure and managed services for government and PSU clients, Ahmedabad, plus a renewable sideline. FY26 revenue 1,410 Cr (+7%), PAT 45 Cr — below FY24's 50 Cr; RoE 71→29% in two years; rising receivables. 26x for a 3%-margin government contractor. The quota structure is the tell: a 52.5% retail slice against 25% QIB says the bankers do not expect institutions to fill it, and their last nine issues saw seven list below price. Ventura says Subscribe; the structure says otherwise.

German Green Steel

SKIP — watch after listing

25–29 Sep · band ₹139 · ₹304 Cr · 95% fresh / 5% OFS

cheapest on the boardcommodity, regional
expected listing~+8%
GMP ₹15 · +10.8% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E
13.1x
P/B
0.67
RoE
18.9%
D/E
0.79
to capacity
₹226 Cr

TMT bars, billets and sponge iron, Kutch. FY26 revenue 1,685 Cr (+11%), PAT 80 Cr (+33%), EBITDA 9.9%; ₹226 Cr into capacity plus a hybrid wind and solar plant. The only issue here below book value, and the only one whose price does not assume the cycle continues. But it is a regional commodity steelmaker and an 8% expected listing gain is not worth the lock-up. If the 24th's anchor list carries real institutions — CLSA is on the book — a single retail lot becomes reasonable.

Swastika Infra

SKIP — revisit

23–25 Sep · band ₹185 · ₹161 Cr · 80% fresh / 20% OFS

real growthcontingent liab. 43% of cap
expected listing~+2%
GMP ₹8 · +4.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E
15.2x
RoNW
35.4%
order book
₹917 Cr
book/revenue
1.8x
contingent liab.
₹273 Cr
market cap
₹631 Cr

Power transmission and distribution EPC, Rajasthan-heavy. Revenue 211→506 Cr and PAT 14→41 Cr in two years is real growth at a fair multiple. But contingent liabilities of ₹273 Cr against a ₹631 Cr market cap, rising receivables and a 4% GMP: no listing edge and a balance-sheet question that the order book does not answer. Worth studying once listed and once a few quarters of conversion are visible.

Runwal Enterprises

SKIP

25–29 Sep · band ₹305 · ₹500 Cr · 100% fresh

D/E 3.29lumpy recognitionone city
expected listing~+3%
GMP ₹18 · +5.9% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
24.3x
P/B
5.0
D/E
3.29
borrowings
₹2,909 Cr
FY24→26 income
2,437→1,051→1,851 Cr

Mumbai developer, #3 by launches and sales, #1 in Kalyan-Dombivli. FY26 income 1,851 Cr and PAT 186 Cr look excellent until the three years are read together — 2,437 / 1,051 / 1,851 Cr — which is revenue recognition, not a run-rate, so the +234% PAT year prices something that has not been earned twice. One reviewer computes the post-issue P/E at 95x on a different earnings base; when reviewers cannot agree on the base, the base is the risk. Only ₹100–325 Cr of proceeds go to debt against ₹2,909 Cr of borrowings.

Varmora Granito

AVOID

22–24 Sep · band ₹148 · ₹708 Cr · 45% fresh / 55% OFS

book is voting no61x on 6.8% RoE
expected listing~+1%
GMP ₹5 · +3.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
60.7x
RoE
6.8%
P/B
3.74
Kajaria P/E
~40x
revenue 3 yrs
1,473→1,563 Cr

Morbi tiles. Revenue flat across three years, PAT 55 Cr, RoE 6.8% — and priced at 61x against Kajaria's ~40x with double the return ratios. 55% OFS, with Katsura exiting, and every rupee of fresh money going to debt repayment rather than the business. Anand Rathi, Axis, Antique and Ventura said Subscribe; Canara said Avoid; the book has settled it at 0.15x on day two with QIB at zero.

Elevate Campuses

AVOID at IPO

23–25 Sep · band ₹362 · ₹2,100 Cr · 100% fresh

₹1,100 Cr to sponsor's Singapore entitiesD/E 4.98one-off in PAT
expected listing~−1%
GMP ₹5 · +1.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E reported
35.1x
P/E normalised
~68–89x
D/E
4.98
borrowings
1,207→4,121 Cr
one-off in PAT
₹105 Cr
beds
78,542

Student housing plus K-12 schools — a good business (Value Research: "good business, complicated issue") inside an issue that is not. FY26 PAT of 174 Cr includes a ₹105 Cr one-time gain, so the real multiple is ~68x rather than 35x; borrowings went 1,207→4,121 Cr in a single year; and of the ₹2,100 Cr raised, ₹1,100 Cr goes to the sponsor's Singapore entities to buy sixteen private school companies, with ₹750 Cr to debt. JM, IIFL and Morgan Stanley placed ₹945 Cr with anchors. Sushil and Ventura say Subscribe. Interesting below ~₹270 once the debt reduction is real; not at 362.

AceVector (Snapdeal)

AVOID

25–29 Sep · band ₹32 · ₹420 Cr · 68% fresh / 32% OFS

loss-makingzero GMPnegative RoNW
expected listing~−7%
GMP ₹0 · +0.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
FY26 revenue
₹510 Cr (+29%)
FY26 loss
₹46–61 Cr
valuation
₹1,741 Cr
EBITDA
negative

Snapdeal, Unicommerce and Stellaro Brands under one roof. The loss narrowed — FY25 126 Cr to FY26 46 Cr on the company's figures — but EBITDA is still negative, RoNW negative, and SoftBank's Starfish is selling up to 27.6M shares alongside Nexus. Zero grey-market premium, and our own base rate for a zero-GMP listing is −6.6% with only 29% of them listing positive. Nothing here to price a listing trade on.