23–25 Sep (closes today) · band ₹134 · ₹151 Cr · 88% fresh / 12% OFS

overall

18.07x

QIB

1.82x

HNI

27.21x

retail

23.43x

GMP

unchanged ₹34

closes

today

<b>Yesterday's page was reading an intraday book and drew the wrong conclusion from it.</b> It saw QIB at 0.05x at 10:30 on day 2, declared the weak-listing pattern, and called for selling the whole allotment. By the day-2 close QIB was <b>1.82x</b> — institutions bid late, which is the ordinary shape of a book and not a surprise. The stated condition was <em>QIB under 1x at Friday's close with retail above 5x</em>. QIB is already above 1x with a day still to run, so the condition has not fired and will not unless bids are withdrawn. <b>The call lands in the same place for a different reason.</b> The original note said hold a tranche only if QIB clears 5x; at 1.82x it does not, so the whole allotment is sold at the open. At 27x on the HNI book the allotment will be a token in any case. What this costs if I am wrong: the upside beyond the first print on a small position.

24–28 Sep · band ₹34 · ₹1,092 Cr · ₹750 Cr fresh / ₹342 Cr OFS

overall

1.44x

QIB

0.05x

HNI

2.43x

retail

1.79x

GMP

₹14, from ₹5 on 21 Sep

closes

Mon 28 Sep

GMP has climbed ₹5 → ₹11 → ₹14 across three sessions and is the highest on the board at +41.2%; the lens puts the listing near +39%. <b>QIB at 0.05x after day 1 is not the warning it looks like</b> — Adroit's book above is the same story one day further on, 0.05x intraday to 1.82x at the close. The number that matters is QIB at Monday's close, not today's. The application stands. The exit plan is unchanged: 70% at the listing print, and the remaining 30% held only if Q2 credit costs come in clean — a lender's listing premium is worth nothing if the book is deteriorating underneath it.

25–29 Sep (opens today) · band ₹272 · ₹528 Cr · fresh + OFS

GMP 01:30

₹60 (+22.1%)

GMP 10:30

₹113 (+41.5%)

lot

55 shares

min retail

₹14,960

listing

5 Oct

band

₹258–272

Two decades in networking cable and passive equipment, and the grey market has <b>doubled into its own opening</b>: ₹45 at yesterday’s read, ₹60 at 01:30 this morning, <b>₹113 by 10:30</b> — +41.5%, level with Moneyview at the top of the board and the largest single move on it. The call was APPLY yesterday on a weaker number and is unchanged, which is the point: the case was made before the premium moved, so the move is confirmation rather than the reason. <b>Applied on 25 September.</b> Half sold at the listing print, half held — the cable and wire sector has been the one place a listing premium has extended rather than faded this quarter. <b>What to watch before the book closes on the 29th:</b> QIB at the final close. Adroit is this week’s lesson in both directions — QIB read 0.05x intraday on day 2 and closed that same day at 1.82x, and Varmora finished at 3.16x against the 0.27x an intraday read had shown. An intraday subscription figure is not a book. <b>What would flip the hold half:</b> QIB under 1x at the 29 September close with retail above 5x — the weak-listing pattern — in which case the whole allotment goes at the open.

25–29 Sep (opens today) · band ₹139 · ₹304 Cr · ₹290 Cr fresh / ₹14 Cr OFS

GMP yesterday

₹24 (+17.3%)

GMP today

₹28 (+20.1%)

FY26 revenue

+11%

FY26 PAT

+33%

lot

107 shares

min retail

₹14,873

The GMP improved and the call does not, which is the discipline this page is for. <b>A grey-market quote is not a reason; it is a number the call has to survive.</b> The refusal was never about the premium — it is a TMT-bar maker in Gujarat, a price taker on iron ore and coal with FY26 revenue up 11% against PAT up 33%, which is margin expansion on input costs rather than on volume, and input costs revert. +20.1% would list well and might. Skipped anyway, and the condition for revisiting is written down: at or below ₹139 after listing, with steel prices holding.

25–29 Sep (opens today) · band ₹305 · ₹500 Cr · 100% fresh

GMP 01:30

₹35 (+11.5%)

GMP 10:30

₹30 (+9.8%)

to debt repayment

₹325 Cr

to growth

₹175 Cr

lot

49 shares

listing

5 Oct

The premium doubled overnight and the case did not change with it. Mumbai real estate, founded 1978, all-fresh issue — and <b>₹325 Cr of the ₹500 Cr goes to repaying debt</b>, so under two fifths of what is raised reaches the business. That is a balance-sheet repair priced as a growth issue. A GMP that moves from +5.9% to +11.5% the night before an issue opens, with no news between, is the part of the grey market the 2.6-point haircut exists for. Skipped.

25–29 Sep (opens today) · band ₹32 · ₹420 Cr · ₹287 Cr fresh / OFS 4.16 Cr shares

GMP, our board

₹1.5 (+4.7%)

GMP, InvestorGain

₹0 (0.0%)

EBITDA

negative

RoNW

negative

lot

468 shares

band

₹30–32

<b>The two GMP boards disagree, and both readings are bad.</b> Ours has ₹1.5; InvestorGain had ₹0 on 24 September. A zero GMP has averaged −6.6% at listing across the 295 issues measured and listed positive 29% of the time, and +4.7% is inside the 2.6-point overstatement — neither number is a case. Losses are narrowing and revenue is growing, but EBITDA and RoNW are both still negative and the selling shareholders are SoftBank and Nexus. An OFS by the people who know the asset best, into a grey market that will not bid, is two independent opinions pointing the same way. Avoided.

24–28 Sep · band ₹405 · ₹650 Cr · fresh + OFS

overall

0.58x

QIB

0.09x

HNI

0.77x

retail

0.77x

GMP yesterday

₹55 (+13.6%)

GMP today

₹45 (+11.1%)

<b>Downgraded.</b> Yesterday's call was apply, one retail lot, on a +13.6% premium. Two things moved against it overnight and they point the same way: the GMP fell to +11.1%, and the day-1 book closed at 0.58x with <em>no</em> category above 1x — retail 0.77x, HNI 0.77x, QIB 0.09x. An issue nobody has to compete for is an issue where the allotment is certain and worth having for exactly that reason — which is the trap. Full allotment on a book that will not fill, in the same steel complex as the issue skipped above, against a premium that is falling rather than rising. There are two apply-worthy issues on this board; this is not the third.

23–25 Sep (closes today) · band ₹375 · ₹235 Cr · fresh + OFS

GMP yesterday

₹55 (+14.7%)

GMP today

₹20 (+5.3%)

overall

1.17x

QIB

0.94x

HNI

0.86x

retail

1.35x

Skipped yesterday at +14.7% and the grey market has since agreed, hard: ₹55 to ₹20, a 64% fall in the premium in a single session, with the book scraping past 1x only on retail. <b>This is what the skip was for.</b> Nothing to do — it is recorded because a call that is later confirmed by the price is worth as much to read back as one that is contradicted, and only one of the two gets written down if the page is only updated when something is bought.

23–25 Sep (closes today) · band ₹185 · ₹98 Cr · fresh

overall

1.64x

QIB

1.00x

HNI

2.58x

retail

1.59x

GMP

unchanged ₹8

closes

today

The book filled out on day 2 — 0.96x to 1.64x, with QIB reaching exactly 1x — and the grey market did not move at all. +4.3% is +1.7% after the haircut, which is inside the noise of a listing print. The skip stands on arithmetic rather than on any view of the company: there is no premium here to sell into.

23–25 Sep (closes today) · band ₹362 · ₹362 Cr · fresh + OFS

overall

0.23x

QIB

0.18x

HNI

0.33x

retail

0.23x

GMP

₹3 (+0.8%)

expected

−1.8%

Closing today with under a quarter of the book taken and a premium of +0.8%, which the lens turns negative. An issue this far short of its own book normally extends or withdraws; if it lists, it lists into no demand. Avoided at the IPO, and the revisit condition is unchanged — below about ₹270, with debt reduction that can be verified rather than promised.

22–24 Sep (closed) · band ₹148 · ₹300 Cr · fresh + OFS

overall

1.58x

QIB

3.16x

HNI

0.92x

retail

1.00x

GMP

₹0

base rate at zero GMP

−6.6%

Closed yesterday and avoided. Worth one line for the record: the <b>final</b> book was 1.58x on QIB at 3.16x, against the 0.27x this page quoted from an intraday read on its last morning. Institutions bid at the close — the same lesson Adroit taught at the top of this page, in the same week. An intraday subscription figure is not a book. The GMP stayed at zero regardless, which is where the avoid came from and where it stays: zero has averaged −6.6%.

28–30 Sep · band ₹130 · ₹135 Cr · fresh + OFS

GMP 01:30

₹13 (+10.0%)

GMP 10:30

₹22 (+16.9%)

BRLM

Choice Capital

opens

Mon 28 Sep

Unchanged from yesterday and not decided today — it opens Monday. A sole book-runner and a related transaction that is referenced without being closed or disclosed. The premium went from +10.0% to <b>+16.9%</b> between 01:30 and 10:30 and the call does not move with it: the revisit condition is the transaction, not the premium. It opens Monday, so there is time for the disclosure to arrive.

28–30 Sep · band ₹167 · ₹120 Cr · fresh + OFS

GMP yesterday

₹10 (+6.0%)

GMP today

₹12 (+7.2%)

BRLM

Beeline Capital

opens

Mon 28 Sep

Unchanged, and opens Monday. A broking house coming to market on declining revenue with a sole book-runner; the premium has drifted up two rupees and changes nothing. Revisit on two quarters of recovery, not on a grey-market quote.