Tuesday 29 September, re-read at 09:15 against the live book. Monday was ugly and it matters here. The Nifty fell 360 points to 22,780, a six-month low, under 23,000 for the first time since April, decliners beating advancers about 2.5 to 1 — Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz offer and crude went to $107. The Rally Attempt that began on 25 September is dead: yesterday’s new low at 22,762 ended it, and the new condition is holding above 22,762 for three sessions. India is now one of thirteen countries in a Downtrend, up from ten. Four issues close today: Orient Cables, Acevector, German Green Steel and Runwal. The number of the day is Orient Cables’ QIB at 0.06x with hours left, on an 8.32x book carried by HNI at 17.37x and retail at 9.16x. Moneyview went 0.25x to 58.68x on its own final day, so this is not yet settled — but it is the last day it can move. Two corrections to yesterday. Acevector covered, 0.96x to 1.15x with QIB at 1.03x, so the under-subscription risk I flagged is gone; the AVOID now rests on the 6.2% GMP alone. And SRIT India cleared 1x on day two with retail at 1.61x, which does not restore the sHNI leg — that needed a 3x day-one book and got 0.67x — but it does say the retail call was the right half to keep. Expected listing is the GMP percentage less 2.6 points, the overstatement backtest_gmp measured over 295 listings (r = 0.87). Applied: Adroit sHNI 23 Sep (listed, sold); Moneyview HNI 24 Sep (closed 44.17x, QIB 58.68x); Orient Cables retail 25 Sep. Held: nothing in equities — NSE was sold Monday at ₹1,767.30 and the proceeds parked in LIQUIDCASE, which on a day the index lost 1.56% was the accidental right place to be.
Moneyview
APPLIED — closed, awaiting allotment24–28 Sep (CLOSED) · band ₹32–34 · ₹1,092 Cr · ₹750 Cr fresh / ₹342 Cr OFS
best GMP on the boardQIB 58.7x — the case madePAT flat on +43% revenueD/E 2.27x
- P/E post
- 8.61x
- RoE
- 15.98%
- D/E
- 2.27x
- FY26 revenue
- ₹3,404 Cr
- FY26 PAT
- ₹243 Cr
- retail min
- ₹14,994
- sHNI min
- ₹2.10L
- bHNI min
- ₹10.05L
The cheapest thing on the board at 8.6x, and the reason is visible in the accounts: revenue grew 43% to ₹3,404 Cr while profit went from ₹240 Cr to ₹243 Cr. That is a lender buying growth with margin, funded at 2.27x debt to equity. It is priced for that. Fifteen times on the HNI book with a 41% GMP is the market agreeing the discount is too wide for a listing pop, and nothing more — hold this past the open and you own the margin question.
SRIT India
APPLY, retail only — downgraded on its own test28–30 Sep (closes tomorrow) · band ₹123–130 · ₹218 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS
no OFS — every rupee goes inRoE 30.2%cleared 1x on day 2QIB still absent with a day left
- P/E post
- 20.97x
- RoE
- 30.23%
- RoCE
- 28.79%
- revenue CAGR
- 28.8% FY24→26
- PAT CAGR
- 22.0%
- FY26 revenue
- ₹450 Cr
- FY26 PAT
- ₹43.3 Cr
- lot
- 115 sh
The only issue here with no offer for sale: the whole ₹218 Cr goes into the company rather than to selling holders, which is the one structural signal in an IPO that cannot be dressed. Thirty percent return on equity at twenty-one times, growing revenue at a 29% CAGR and profit at 22% — profit growing slower than revenue is worth watching, but from these returns it is a quibble. Marquee anchors are allotted. Of everything opening this week this is the one worth the application.
Orient Cables
APPLIED — closes today25–29 Sep (CLOSES TODAY) · band ₹258–272 · ₹552 Cr · ₹320 Cr fresh / ₹232 Cr OFS
RoE 25.8%8.32x overallQIB 0.06x with hours leftGMP ₹90 → ₹80 → ₹72
- P/E post
- 23.61x
- RoE
- 25.84%
- RoCE
- 23.82%
- working capital
- ~48 days
- market cap
- ₹3,095 Cr
- lot
- 55 sh
- listing
- 5 Oct
Good business at a fair-to-full price — 26% return on equity, a 48-day working-capital cycle, in cables where the demand story is real. The number to watch on Monday and Tuesday is QIB at 0.01x. Institutions bid on the last day so it is not yet a verdict, but if it finishes under 1x on a ₹552 Cr issue the retail and HNI books carried it alone, and that is a listing to sell into rather than hold.
German Green Steel
WATCH — closes today, no book to read25–29 Sep (CLOSES TODAY) · band ₹132–139 · ₹304 Cr · ₹290 Cr fresh / ₹14 Cr OFS
GMP 20%no subscription visiblesteel, cyclical
- issue
- ₹304 Cr
- fresh
- 95%
- band
- ₹132–139
- listing
- 5 Oct
A 20% grey-market premium and no exchange book this page can verify — ipowatch and the NSE name the company differently and the parser will not guess. That is the whole call: the half of the evidence that can be checked is missing, and GMP alone has never been enough here. Read the book directly on Monday before deciding.
A-One Steels
SKIP — closed24–28 Sep (CLOSED) · band ₹385–405 · ₹405 Cr · ₹355 Cr fresh / ₹50 Cr OFS
24.6x for a steel makerRoE 14.7%QIB finished 0.42xGMP faded 13.8% → 9.9%
- P/E post
- 24.55x
- P/E pre
- 21.76x
- RoE
- 14.70%
- RoCE
- 12.86%
- RoNW
- 15.43%
- lot
- 37 sh
- retail min
- ₹14,985
Twenty-four and a half times earnings for a backward-integrated long-products steel maker returning 14.7% on equity and 12.9% on capital. Steel is a cyclical that the market pays single digits for through a cycle; this is priced as though the cycle does not exist. A 12.6% premium is thin compensation for that, the book is barely covered at 1.35x with a day to run, and 0.09x QIB on day two of three is not the shape of an issue institutions want.
Runwal Enterprises
SKIP — closes today25–29 Sep (CLOSES TODAY) · band ₹290–305 · ₹500 Cr · 100% fresh
retail 0.42x0.71x on the final dayGMP back to ₹14 — still ~+2% after overstatement
- issue
- ₹500 Cr
- fresh
- 100%
- band
- ₹290–305
- lot
- —
Retail has taken 18% of its quota and the issue as a whole is at 0.42x. A ₹500 Cr realty issue that the retail book is ignoring, with a 9.8% grey-market premium that leaves about seven points after the measured overstatement. QIB at 0.96x is the only part holding up. There is no version of this worth an application at ₹305.
Acevector
AVOID — it covered, the call still stands25–29 Sep (CLOSES TODAY) · band ₹30–32 · ₹420 Cr · ₹287 Cr fresh / ₹133 Cr OFS
covered — the under-subscription risk is gone1.15x is thin for a ₹420 Cr issueGMP 6.2% → ~+4% after overstatement
- issue
- ₹420 Cr
- OFS share
- 32%
- band
- ₹30–32
- GMP
- ₹2
Snapdeal's parent, at 0.23x with two days gone and not one rupee of QIB. A ₹2 premium on a ₹32 issue is four points after the overstatement, which is inside the noise of a listing day. Every part of the book that can be read says the market does not want it at this price.
Shah Investor’s Home
AVOID — confirmed by the book28–30 Sep (closes tomorrow) · band ₹159–167 · ₹90 Cr · 100% fresh
PAT −44%RoE 14.7% → 7.6%operating cash flow −₹19.7 Cr26.9x for all of it
- P/E post
- 26.94x
- P/E pre
- 20.07x
- RoE
- 7.59%
- RoCE
- 10.61%
- FY26 income
- ₹72.4 Cr, −23%
- FY26 PAT
- ₹13.1 Cr, −44%
- op. cash flow
- −₹19.7 Cr
- lot
- 85 sh
Revenue down 23%, profit down 44%, return on equity halved from 14.7% to 7.6%, return on capital from 20.4% to 10.6%, and operating cash flow negative ₹19.7 Cr — and the ask is 26.9 times post-issue earnings, a higher multiple than the business earned when it was twice as profitable. A broker listing into a market that entered a Downtrend on Thursday, at the top of its own valuation range, on shrinking numbers. The 7.2% premium is the market's politeness.
Vishal Nirmiti
AVOID — opens tomorrow at a near-zero GMP30 Sep–5 Oct (opens tomorrow) · band ₹220 · — · —
zero GMP
- band
- ₹220
- opens
- 30 Sep
No grey-market premium at all. Measured over 295 listings a zero GMP has averaged −6.6% and listed positive 29% of the time, which is a coin flip weighted against you for the privilege of locked funds.
Nityas Gems
WATCH — opens tomorrow30 Sep–5 Oct (opens tomorrow) · band ₹75 · — · —
GMP ₹0 → ₹5 → ₹9 in two sessionsno book until it opens
- band
- ₹75
- opens
- 30 Sep
Same as above, and gems and jewellery on top of it.