equity-service · cortex · 2026-10-05

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid

Monday 5 October, written at 10:45. Orient Cables finished at 97.28x and lists today. On the morning of its final day this page had it at 8.32x with QIB at 0.06x and called that the number of the day. The grey-market premium has since risen ₹85 to ₹110, an indicative listing near ₹382 against a ₹272 band — about +40%. That is the fourth time the same mistake would have been made, after Moneyview (0.25x to 58.68x), SRIT India (0.03x to 91.84x) and Shah Investor’s Home (1.1x to 28.05x). The rule written here on 1 October — quote the QIB book, do not forecast from it — has now been tested four times and held every time. Nothing was allotted. The broker shows no Orient Cables, no Moneyview and no A-One Steels; the account holds LIQUIDCASE and nothing else. At 97.28x overall and 44.17x for Moneyview, retail and HNI allotment is a lottery and this is the ordinary outcome, not a failure — but it should be confirmed against the Console rather than inferred from an empty holdings list. The generated board is unavailable today. show_ipos reports that the source has restructured and carries no Mainboard GMP table at all, so the numbers above are read from the exchange and grey-market pages directly. The parser needs fixing before that section is trusted again.

IPOcallGMPGMP %expected listingapply ashorizonbook
MoneyviewLISTED 1 Oct — not allotted₹14+41.2%~+39%HNI (applied 24 Sep)Sell at the open. The case is the discount, not the franchise.Fri close: 6.01x · HNI 15.41x · retail 5.18x · QIB 0.25x
SRIT IndiaLISTS 6 Oct — QIB 91.84x₹32+24.6%~+22%Retail, and sHNI if the day-1 book clears 3xListing-day sell; a tranche can ride if QIB is 5x or betteropens Monday · anchors allotted, Abakkus among them
Orient CablesLISTS TODAY — not allotted₹110+40.4%~+38%Retail (applied 25 Sep)Sell at the open unless QIB finishes above 5xFinal: 97.28x overall — from 8.32x on the final morning
German Green SteelWATCH — no book to read₹28+20.1%~+18%Retail only, and only on a day-3 book above 2xListing-day sellno exchange book matched — the name differs between sources
A-One SteelsLISTED 1 Oct — skipped₹51+12.6%~+10%——Fri close: 1.35x · HNI 2.07x · retail 1.76x · QIB 0.09x
Runwal EnterprisesSKIP₹30+9.8%~+7%——Fri close: 0.42x · QIB 0.96x · HNI 0.28x · retail 0.18x
AcevectorAVOID₹2+6.2%~+4%——Fri close: 0.23x · HNI 0.42x · retail 0.62x · QIB 0x
Shah Investor’s HomeLISTS 6 Oct — avoided, QIB 28.05x₹12+7.2%~+5%——opens Monday
Vishal NirmitiAVOID — zero GMP₹0+0.0%~−7%——not open
Nityas GemsAVOID — zero GMP₹0+0.0%~−7%——not open

What four reversals in one week actually establish. Every issue this page flagged for a thin institutional book — Moneyview, SRIT, Shah Investor’s Home, Orient Cables — closed with a heavy one. Not one exception. A QIB figure read before the final session closes is not weak evidence; on this sample it is anti-evidence, and the only honest use of it is to report the number and wait. The sell-into-the-listing plan for Orient rested on QIB finishing under 5x. It finished far above, so the plan’s premise is gone — which is moot here, since nothing was allotted, but it would not have been moot at ten lakh. The market it lists into is the other half. The Nifty closed 1 October at 22,421.95, invalidating the second rally attempt in a week, and twenty-seven countries are now in a MarketSmith Downtrend against nine in a confirmed uptrend. A 40% indicative premium is a grey-market quote, not a print.

Moneyview

LISTED 1 Oct — not allotted

listed 1 Oct · closed 44.17x · band ₹32–34 · ₹1,092 Cr · ₹750 Cr fresh / ₹342 Cr OFS

best GMP on the boardHNI 15.4xPAT flat on +43% revenueD/E 2.27x
expected listing~+39%
GMP ₹14 · +41.2% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
8.61x
RoE
15.98%
D/E
2.27x
FY26 revenue
₹3,404 Cr
FY26 PAT
₹243 Cr
retail min
₹14,994
sHNI min
₹2.10L
bHNI min
₹10.05L

The cheapest thing on the board at 8.6x, and the reason is visible in the accounts: revenue grew 43% to ₹3,404 Cr while profit went from ₹240 Cr to ₹243 Cr. That is a lender buying growth with margin, funded at 2.27x debt to equity. It is priced for that. Fifteen times on the HNI book with a 41% GMP is the market agreeing the discount is too wide for a listing pop, and nothing more — hold this past the open and you own the margin question.

SRIT India

LISTS 6 Oct — QIB 91.84x

lists 6 Oct · band ₹123–130 · ₹218 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS

no OFS — every rupee goes inRoE 30.2%21x post-issue₹218 Cr — small
expected listing~+22%
GMP ₹32 · +24.6% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
20.97x
RoE
30.23%
RoCE
28.79%
revenue CAGR
28.8% FY24→26
PAT CAGR
22.0%
FY26 revenue
₹450 Cr
FY26 PAT
₹43.3 Cr
lot
115 sh

The only issue here with no offer for sale: the whole ₹218 Cr goes into the company rather than to selling holders, which is the one structural signal in an IPO that cannot be dressed. Thirty percent return on equity at twenty-one times, growing revenue at a 29% CAGR and profit at 22% — profit growing slower than revenue is worth watching, but from these returns it is a quibble. Marquee anchors are allotted. Of everything opening this week this is the one worth the application.

Orient Cables

LISTS TODAY — not allotted

lists 5 Oct · closed 97.28x · band ₹258–272 · ₹552 Cr · ₹320 Cr fresh / ₹232 Cr OFS

RoE 25.8%97.28x final bookthe 0.06x QIB read was wrong, as it was three times before
expected listing~+38%
GMP ₹110 · +40.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
23.61x
RoE
25.84%
RoCE
23.82%
working capital
~48 days
market cap
₹3,095 Cr
lot
55 sh
listing
5 Oct

Good business at a fair-to-full price — 26% return on equity, a 48-day working-capital cycle, in cables where the demand story is real. The number to watch on Monday and Tuesday is QIB at 0.01x. Institutions bid on the last day so it is not yet a verdict, but if it finishes under 1x on a ₹552 Cr issue the retail and HNI books carried it alone, and that is a listing to sell into rather than hold.

German Green Steel

WATCH — no book to read

25–29 Sep (closes Tuesday) · band ₹132–139 · ₹304 Cr · ₹290 Cr fresh / ₹14 Cr OFS

GMP 20%no subscription visiblesteel, cyclical
expected listing~+18%
GMP ₹28 · +20.1% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
issue
₹304 Cr
fresh
95%
band
₹132–139
listing
5 Oct

A 20% grey-market premium and no exchange book this page can verify — ipowatch and the NSE name the company differently and the parser will not guess. That is the whole call: the half of the evidence that can be checked is missing, and GMP alone has never been enough here. Read the book directly on Monday before deciding.

A-One Steels

LISTED 1 Oct — skipped

listed 1 Oct · closed 7.14x · band ₹385–405 · ₹405 Cr · ₹355 Cr fresh / ₹50 Cr OFS

24.6x for a steel makerRoE 14.7%QIB 0.09x on day 2
expected listing~+10%
GMP ₹51 · +12.6% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
24.55x
P/E pre
21.76x
RoE
14.70%
RoCE
12.86%
RoNW
15.43%
lot
37 sh
retail min
₹14,985

Twenty-four and a half times earnings for a backward-integrated long-products steel maker returning 14.7% on equity and 12.9% on capital. Steel is a cyclical that the market pays single digits for through a cycle; this is priced as though the cycle does not exist. A 12.6% premium is thin compensation for that, the book is barely covered at 1.35x with a day to run, and 0.09x QIB on day two of three is not the shape of an issue institutions want.

Runwal Enterprises

SKIP

25–29 Sep (closes Tuesday) · band ₹290–305 · ₹500 Cr · 100% fresh

retail 0.18xunder-subscribed overallrealty at a 10% premium
expected listing~+7%
GMP ₹30 · +9.8% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
issue
₹500 Cr
fresh
100%
band
₹290–305
lot
—

Retail has taken 18% of its quota and the issue as a whole is at 0.42x. A ₹500 Cr realty issue that the retail book is ignoring, with a 9.8% grey-market premium that leaves about seven points after the measured overstatement. QIB at 0.96x is the only part holding up. There is no version of this worth an application at ₹305.

Acevector

AVOID

25–29 Sep (closes Tuesday) · band ₹30–32 · ₹420 Cr · ₹287 Cr fresh / ₹133 Cr OFS

QIB literally zero0.23x overallSnapdeal's parent
expected listing~+4%
GMP ₹2 · +6.2% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
issue
₹420 Cr
OFS share
32%
band
₹30–32
GMP
₹2

Snapdeal's parent, at 0.23x with two days gone and not one rupee of QIB. A ₹2 premium on a ₹32 issue is four points after the overstatement, which is inside the noise of a listing day. Every part of the book that can be read says the market does not want it at this price.

Shah Investor’s Home

LISTS 6 Oct — avoided, QIB 28.05x

lists 6 Oct · band ₹159–167 · ₹90 Cr · 100% fresh

PAT −44%RoE 14.7% → 7.6%operating cash flow −₹19.7 Cr26.9x for all of it
expected listing~+5%
GMP ₹12 · +7.2% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
26.94x
P/E pre
20.07x
RoE
7.59%
RoCE
10.61%
FY26 income
₹72.4 Cr, −23%
FY26 PAT
₹13.1 Cr, −44%
op. cash flow
−₹19.7 Cr
lot
85 sh

Revenue down 23%, profit down 44%, return on equity halved from 14.7% to 7.6%, return on capital from 20.4% to 10.6%, and operating cash flow negative ₹19.7 Cr — and the ask is 26.9 times post-issue earnings, a higher multiple than the business earned when it was twice as profitable. A broker listing into a market that entered a Downtrend on Thursday, at the top of its own valuation range, on shrinking numbers. The 7.2% premium is the market's politeness.

Vishal Nirmiti

AVOID — zero GMP

30 Sep–5 Oct · band ₹220 · — · —

zero GMP
expected listing~−7%
GMP ₹0 · +0.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
band
₹220
opens
30 Sep

No grey-market premium at all. Measured over 295 listings a zero GMP has averaged −6.6% and listed positive 29% of the time, which is a coin flip weighted against you for the privilege of locked funds.

Nityas Gems

AVOID — zero GMP

30 Sep–5 Oct · band ₹75 · — · —

zero GMP
expected listing~−7%
GMP ₹0 · +0.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
band
₹75
opens
30 Sep

Same as above, and gems and jewellery on top of it.