Wednesday 7 October, written at 09:30. Nothing is open for application today and nothing is held. The September cohort has listed out and dropped off the source; the board is down to two forward names, neither of which has a published price band. That is the gap the 6 October footnote asked for, so this entry spends it on Jio Platform’s accounts rather than its grey-market quote — the largest IPO India has run, open 21–23 October. The numbers are now in: FY26 revenue ₹1,46,885 Cr (+14.6%), EBITDA ₹76,255 Cr at a 51.9% margin, PAT ₹30,049 Cr (+15.1%), 524.4 M subscribers, ARPU ₹214. At the reported ₹13 lakh crore equity value that is about 43× FY26 earnings for 15% profit growth. Two structural facts cut opposite ways and both matter: the issue is 100% fresh with no offer for sale — the one signal in an IPO that cannot be dressed, and the same one that made SRIT the pick last month — but ₹27,500 Cr of roughly ₹33,000 Cr goes to repaying borrowings, so it is a deleveraging, not an expansion. Held: nothing in equities.
IPO
call
GMP
GMP %
expected listing
apply as
horizon
book
Jio Platform
WORK DONE EARLY — decide when the band prints
₹167
+13.7%
~+11%
Retail — and this is the first issue this quarter where that is worth doing
Undecided until the band prints. 43× is not a listing-pop multiple.
opens 21 Oct · DRHP 19 Jun 2026
HD Fire Protect
WATCH — nothing to judge yet
₹0
+0.0%
—
Undecided — no band, no book, no basis
Revisit 9 October when the band prints
opens 13 Oct
HD Fire Protect’s zero GMP is not a signal today and must not be read as one. Its band is not published until about 9 October, and a premium is a quote against a price: with no price there is nothing to quote. Our own calibration — a zero GMP has averaged −6.6% over 295 listings — is drawn from issues whose band existed and whose grey market declined to bid. This is not that, and treating the two as the same number is precisely the error this page made four times in September when it called thin institutional books decisive and was wrong every time. The one genuinely new argument for Jio is allotment odds, not price. On a ₹218 Cr issue a retail application is a lottery — SRIT closed at 91.84× QIB and nothing came. The retail quota of a ₹33,000 Cr issue is larger in absolute rupees by more than two orders of magnitude, so for the first time this quarter an application has a real chance of being filled. That changes the arithmetic of applying far more than a 14% grey-market premium does.
Jio Platform
WORK DONE EARLY — decide when the band prints
21–23 Oct · allotment 26 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band not published · reported ₹1,150–1,220 · ~₹33,000 Cr (reports range to ₹37,800 Cr) · 100% fresh, no OFS — up to 27 Cr shares, FV ₹10
no OFS — every rupee goes in51.9% EBITDA marginretail allotment actually plausible~43× FY26 for 15% growth₹27,500 Cr of it repays debtband unpublished
expected listing~+11%
GMP ₹167 · +13.7% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
FY26 revenue
₹1,46,885 Cr
FY26 EBITDA
₹76,255 Cr
EBITDA margin
51.9%
FY26 PAT
₹30,049 Cr
PAT growth
+15.1%
revenue growth
+14.6%
subscribers
524.4 M
ARPU
₹214/mo
The quality is not in question — a 51.9% EBITDA margin on ₹1.47 lakh crore of revenue is a utility with a moat. The price is. Forty-three times earnings for 15% profit growth is a PEG near 2.9, and the growth that would justify it has to come from tariffs rather than subscribers: ARPU moved ₹206 to ₹214 in a year, under 4%, on a base of 524 million where there is not much of India left to add. Several houses expect the listing itself to trigger a tariff cycle, which is a reasonable thesis and an unproven one. <strong>Note what the fresh-issue structure does and does not say.</strong> No promoter is selling, which is genuinely rare at this size and removes the usual exit-at-the-top read. But 83% of the money repays borrowings. That lifts earnings by removing interest rather than by building anything, and a deleveraging is worth paying for at a lower multiple than a growth raise, not a higher one. No call today, by design: the band is the whole decision and it is not out.
HD Fire Protect
WATCH — nothing to judge yet
13–15 Oct · allotment 16 Oct · lists 21 Oct · band announced ~9 Oct · ₹700–750 Cr · 100% OFS — 2.6 Cr shares, no fresh capital
100% OFS — nothing goes to the companyband unpublishedzero GMP is uninformative here, not bearishSaudi Aramco among its customers
expected listing—
GMP ₹0 · +0.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
issue
₹700–750 Cr
shares offered
2.6 Cr
fresh capital
nil
opens
13 Oct
band due
~9 Oct
lists
21 Oct
The exact inverse of Jio on the one structural axis that matters: every rupee of this goes to selling shareholders and none to the business. That is not disqualifying — a clean OFS of a profitable niche manufacturer is an ordinary way to list — but it removes the only unfakeable signal an IPO offers, and it means the sellers chose this price. Fire-protection equipment with Saudi Aramco on the customer list is a real business with a real export book. None of that can be priced until 9 October, so there is no call here and will not be one until there is.