Thursday 8 October, written at 09:45. HD Fire Protect published its band and the picture changed. ₹258–271, opening Monday 13 October, and the grey market moved from nothing to ₹80 — 29.5% within a day of the price existing. Yesterday this page refused to read its zero GMP as bearish, on the grounds that a premium is a quote against a price and there was no price. That was the right call and the board has now said so. The issue itself is harder than its grey market. At the top of the band the company lists at ₹4,749 Cr against FY26 profit of ₹116.79 Cr — 40.7× earnings for 6.4% profit growth, and every rupee of the ₹712 Cr goes to the promoter couple selling it. Jio Platform’s premium keeps climbing — ₹185 now, from ₹167 yesterday and ₹160 on Monday — with the band still unpublished. Held: nothing in equities. Nothing is open for application today.
IPO
call
GMP
GMP %
expected listing
apply as
horizon
book
HD Fire Protect
DECIDE MONDAY — the band is out, the case is split
₹80
+29.5%
~+27%
Retail if applying at all — ₹14,905 at 55 shares
Listing-day sell. At 40.7× for 6.4% growth there is no hold case.
opens 13 Oct · anchors 12 Oct
Jio Platform
WORK DONE — waiting on the band
₹185
+15.2%
~+13%
Retail — the one issue this quarter where allotment is plausible
Undecided until the band prints. 43× is not a listing-pop multiple.
opens 21 Oct · DRHP 19 Jun 2026
Two GMP sources disagree on HD Fire Protect today, one quoting ₹80 and one still showing zero, and that is worth stating rather than resolving by picking the one that suits. A grey-market quote has no print behind it; when the feeds diverge on the first day of a band, the honest reading is that the market has not settled, not that it has settled at the higher number. The structural case is the one this page keeps returning to. SRIT was worth applying for because every rupee went into the company. This is the inverse: a pure secondary sale by two promoters at forty times earnings, where the people who know the business best are the sellers and the proceeds build nothing. That is not disqualifying — a 30.75% EBITDA margin and Saudi Aramco on the customer list are real — but it means the entire case rests on the listing pop, and a listing pop is the one thing this page has been wrong about four times running when it tried to forecast it from the institutional book. Quote the QIB number on day two; do not predict it.
HD Fire Protect
DECIDE MONDAY — the band is out, the case is split
13–15 Oct · anchors 12 Oct · allotment 16 Oct · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712 Cr at the top of the band · 100% OFS — 2.62 Cr shares, both sellers are the promoters
GMP 29.5% from a standing startEBITDA margin 30.75%100% OFS — nothing to the company40.7× FY26 for 6.4% PAT growthPAT growing slower than revenuetwo GMP feeds disagree today
expected listing~+27%
GMP ₹80 · +29.5% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
P/E post
40.7×
market cap
₹4,749 Cr
FY26 revenue
₹489.28 Cr
revenue growth
+13.0%
FY26 PAT
₹116.79 Cr
PAT growth
+6.4%
EBITDA margin
30.75%
retail min
₹14,905
A good business at a price that needs the grey market to be right. Revenue grew 13% and profit 6.4%, so margin is compressing even at 30.75% — and the market is being asked for forty times earnings on that. Both sellers are the promoters and the company receives nothing, which is the exact inverse of the structure that made SRIT worth applying for last month. <strong>So the case is entirely the listing pop.</strong> A 29.5% premium appearing within a day of the band is genuine demand and not nothing; ₹712 Cr is also small enough that retail allotment is a real possibility rather than the lottery a ₹218 Cr issue was. The decision belongs on Monday with the anchor book in hand, and the QIB number on day two is the thing to read — not forecast.
Jio Platform
WORK DONE — waiting on the band
21–23 Oct · allotment 26 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band still unpublished · reported ₹1,150–1,220 · ~₹33,000 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS — up to 27 Cr shares, FV ₹10
no OFS — every rupee goes in51.9% EBITDA marginGMP ₹160 → ₹167 → ₹185 in three sessions~43× FY26 for 15% growth₹27,500 Cr of it repays debtband still unpublished
expected listing~+13%
GMP ₹185 · +15.2% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
FY26 revenue
₹1,46,885 Cr
FY26 EBITDA
₹76,255 Cr
EBITDA margin
51.9%
FY26 PAT
₹30,049 Cr
PAT growth
+15.1%
subscribers
524.4 M
ARPU
₹214/mo
GMP
₹185
Unchanged from yesterday's work except the premium, which has risen for a third session — ₹160, ₹167, ₹185 — against a band nobody has published. At the reported ₹1,220 top that is 15.2%, so roughly 13% expected after the overstatement. A rising premium on an unpublished band is sentiment rather than information, and the thing that will actually decide this is still the number Reliance prints. Forty-three times earnings for 15% growth needs the tariff cycle several houses expect; 83% of the raise repays borrowings, which lifts earnings by removing interest rather than by building anything.