equity-service · cortex · 2026-10-09

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid

Friday 9 October, written at 10:00. The market reverted to a Downtrend overnight and the grey market repriced both issues within a session. HD Fire Protect’s premium fell from ₹80 to ₹55 — 29.5% to 20.3% — and Jio Platform’s from ₹185 to ₹177. Nifty breached 22,217.30 intraday on Thursday and printed a fresh 52-week low of 22,179.90; MarketSmith moved the status back to Downtrend this morning. This matters more for HD Fire than for Jio, because HD Fire opens on Monday. Its entire case was the listing pop — 40.7× FY26 earnings for 6.4% profit growth, 100% offer for sale, the company receives nothing — and the pop estimate has just fallen by a third before a single bid is placed. Held: nothing in equities. Nothing is open for application today.

IPOcallGMPGMP %expected listingapply ashorizonbook
HD Fire ProtectMONDAY — and the case got thinner overnight₹55+20.3%~+18%Retail if at all — ₹14,905 at 55 sharesListing-day sell. At 40.7× for 6.4% growth there is no hold case.anchors Monday 12 Oct · opens 13 Oct
Jio PlatformWAITING — band still unpublished, two weeks out₹177+14.5%~+12%Retail — allotment is plausible at this sizeUndecided. The band is the whole decision and it is not out.opens 21 Oct · DRHP 19 Jun 2026

A premium that moves 9.2 points in one session is telling you how much of it was sentiment. Nothing about HD Fire Protect changed yesterday: same band, same promoters selling, same 30.75% margin, same forty times earnings. What changed was the market, and a fifth of the expected listing gain went with it. That is worth holding against the number on the morning it opens, when the grey market will quote something again and it will feel like information. The anchor book on Monday is the first verifiable thing on this issue, and it is also where this page has been wrong four times in a row — flagging thin institutional demand as decisive and watching the issue run. So: read the anchor allocation, read the QIB number on day two, quote both, forecast neither.

HD Fire Protect

MONDAY — and the case got thinner overnight

13–15 Oct · anchors 12 Oct · allotment 16 Oct · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712 Cr at the top of the band · 100% OFS — 2.62 Cr shares, both sellers are the promoters

GMP ₹80 → ₹55 in one sessionopens into a Downtrend100% OFS — nothing to the company40.7× FY26 for 6.4% PAT growthEBITDA margin 30.75%anchor book Monday — the first verifiable number
expected listing~+18%
GMP ₹55 · +20.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
GMP yesterday
₹80 · 29.5%
GMP today
₹55 · 20.3%
P/E post
40.7×
market cap
₹4,749 Cr
FY26 revenue
₹489.28 Cr
FY26 PAT
₹116.79 Cr
PAT growth
+6.4%
retail min
₹14,905

Nothing about the company changed yesterday. Same band, same promoters selling the whole of it, same 30.75% margin, same forty times earnings for single-digit growth. What changed was the market, and a fifth of the expected listing gain went with it. <strong>An issue whose only case is the pop is exactly the issue a Downtrend damages most.</strong> The valuation argument was already uncomfortable and it has not improved; what has gone is the compensation for taking it. No call until the anchor allocation prints on Monday. If the premium keeps sliding into the open, the honest answer is to skip it &mdash; this page does not need to own every issue it has written about.

Jio Platform

WAITING — band still unpublished, two weeks out

21–23 Oct · allotment 26 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band still unpublished · reports now conflict: ₹1,150–1,220 or ₹1,350–1,450 · ~₹33,000 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS — up to 27 Cr shares, FV ₹10

no OFS — every rupee goes in51.9% EBITDA marginGMP ₹185 → ₹177band reports now disagree by 18%₹27,500 Cr of it repays debt
expected listing~+12%
GMP ₹177 · +14.5% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement
FY26 revenue
₹1,46,885 Cr
FY26 EBITDA
₹76,255 Cr
EBITDA margin
51.9%
FY26 PAT
₹30,049 Cr
PAT growth
+15.1%
subscribers
524.4 M
ARPU
₹214/mo
GMP
₹177

The premium gave back a little with the market, which is the least interesting thing about it. The band is the issue. Reports that said &#8377;1,150&ndash;1,220 on Monday now also say &#8377;1,350&ndash;1,450 &mdash; an eighteen percent spread between sources on the single number that decides this, and at the higher end today&rsquo;s &#8377;177 is 12.6% rather than 14.5%. Two weeks out, with nothing official, the correct position is to hold the fundamental work done on 7 October and wait. Reliance fell 2.46% on Thursday, the heaviest single drag on the index, three weeks before floating its own subsidiary; that is worth watching without being read as a signal.