equity-service · scan of 12 October 2026

Trading Book

Generated 2026-10-12 09:27 IST

TIS setups

The four TIS scans — daily and weekly, stocks and ETFs. Runs: SWING 2026-10-09 17:30 IST; WEEKLY 2026-10-09 17:33 IST; ETF 2026-10-09 17:39 IST; ETF_WEEKLY 2026-10-09 17:39 IST

SWING — 879 scanned, 242 with a stop derived, 14 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 2 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows — blocked by G3 x11, G5 x4, G1 x1. sizing: Rs 39,808 risk budget / Rs 494,930 deploy cap, 12 slots (t-default)

WEEKLY — 879 scanned, 166 with a stop derived, 2 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows — blocked by G4 x2, G5 x2. sizing: Rs 39,808 risk budget / Rs 494,930 deploy cap, 12 slots (t-default)

ETF — 23 scanned, 15 with a stop derived, 0 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows. sizing: Rs 39,808 risk budget / Rs 494,930 deploy cap, 12 slots (t-default)

ETF: nothing actionable, and nothing within one gate of it (15 names with a stop derived, none at ≥6 of 7).

ETF_WEEKLY — 23 scanned, 15 with a stop derived, 0 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows. sizing: Rs 39,808 risk budget / Rs 494,930 deploy cap, 12 slots (t-default)

ETF_WEEKLY: nothing actionable, and nothing within one gate of it (15 names with a stop derived, none at ≥6 of 7).

Rows are the scan's own record, not a recomputation. 'blocked by' lists every failing gate, not the first.

A *candidate* is any name the scanner could derive a pivot and a stop for, before a single gate is judged; the gates are then scored on every one of them so that a six-of-seven is visible the morning after. The shortlist a reader means by 'passed the gates' is the ≥6 count.

'to entry' is how far the buy trigger sits above the last price the scan saw — not an overnight gap. For the daily scanners the trigger is 0.2% over the last close, so a larger figure means the quote has since moved; negative means the market is already through it.

Other scanners

The two that are not TIS. Both are in the nightly scan, but only the four TIS scanners feed the agent: STRIKE is intraday and everything placed here is CNC, so these rows are read by hand. STRIKE is SWING with a 2R target; REVERSAL buys a washout and enters at the market, so its rows are judged on R1-R3 rather than on the eight gates. Runs: STRIKE 2026-10-09 17:35 IST; REVERSAL 2026-10-09 17:37 IST

STRIKE — 879 scanned, 242 with a stop derived, 14 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 2 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows — blocked by G3 x11, G5 x4, G1 x1. sizing: Rs 39,808 risk budget / Rs 494,930 deploy cap, 12 slots (t-default)

REVERSAL — 589 scanned, 348 with a stop derived, 0 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows. sizing: Rs 39,808 risk budget / Rs 494,930 deploy cap, 12 slots (t-default)

REVERSAL: nothing actionable, and nothing within one gate of it (348 names with a stop derived, none at ≥6 of 7).

A *candidate* is any name the scanner could derive a pivot and a stop for, before a single gate is judged; the gates are then scored on every one of them so that a six-of-seven is visible the morning after. The shortlist a reader means by 'passed the gates' is the ≥6 count.

What ran

The session before the last one, so each move has a day of follow-through beside it. `next` is that following session — a run given straight back is a different event from one that held.

13 names moved 3% or more; showing 13.

Themes: sectors with two or more of the 13 movers. This is what the list is read for — which group is working, so the next setup taken is in it. 'held' is how many kept the move the next session; a theme LAGGING on the RRG while leading the tape is a disagreement to resolve before sizing in it.

The 'why' column is the top headline a news search returned for that name, coloured by the same heuristic the News section explains. A blank means nothing was written, which for a name up 15% is itself worth noticing: a move with no story behind it is a move to distrust.

Group moves among the names shown — Retail/Whlsle-Jewelry x3; Electrical-Power/Equipmt x2. The themes table below groups *all* the movers, not just these.

4 of 13 closed 20% or more above their 20MA — continuation spikes, not base breakouts, which is why the scan finds no tight stop under them.

Regime by index

Each index judged on its own by the same rules as the market status — distribution days, rally attempt, follow-through. Reading only: the gate reads the market status, which is computed from the broad indices alone.

Broad indices

Sectors

A sector's distribution count is weaker evidence than the market's, and knowingly so. The bars carry total cash-market volume rather than the instrument's own, so the 'on higher volume' half of a distribution day is a fact about the whole market and only the price half belongs to the sector. Read it as 'this sector fell on days the market traded heavily'.

The proxies are ETFs, not the indices. An ETF can trade at a premium and carries its own liquidity; on a thin day its close is a worse reading of the sector than the index's own would be. It is what the bhavcopy gives us.

A blank MarketSmith column means their mail did not name that index, which is not a disagreement. They publish one headline status — which belongs to the Nifty and is shown on that row — and a sector block beneath it. There is no published line for smallcap, midcap, Next 50, PSU bank or healthcare.

The Nifty row can read Rally Attempt here while the gate stays shut, and that is not a contradiction. This column is the reporting map, which calls a held attempt what MarketSmith calls it; the gate reads the market status, which leaves a correction on a follow-through day and nothing else.

What the gate refused

Every setup the market filter turned down in the last two trading weeks, followed forward bar by bar with the entry and stop the scanner actually derived.

never triggered 18 · stopped 7 · open 21 · no bars yet 3

49 distinct setups over 10 scan days, 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-09, across 49 symbols. Refused for: breadth 102, computed status missing or downtrend 137 (before de-duplication; a setup can fail both).

Of the 28 that would have filled, 25% stopped out. Across all of them, stopped and open together, the gate cost -0.32% per setup. That is the number to watch: one name that ran is a tail, and this is the distribution it came from.

A setup that never triggered was refused nothing — the buy would not have filled either way, so those are not a cost. Only the filled ones are.

Colour is from the gate's point of view. A refusal that went on to stop out is the gate working; one still open and in profit is the gate costing money.

What is holding up

Every name's return since the index's last peak close on 2026-08-06, 44 session(s) ago, grouped by industry. Two benchmarks over the same window: NIFTYBEES -8.28% and SMALLCAP -2.05%. A sector above the line is outperforming even where it is still negative — in a drawdown that is what leadership looks like. The comparison that counts is against the smallcap peer: this universe is broad and measuring it against fifty large caps flatters almost all of it.

Holding up — best median first. 36 of 69 sectors are beating the smallcap peer.

Taking the damage — worst median first.

Median, not mean: one name up 80% on a takeover bid should not make its whole sector look like leadership. A sector needs at least 3 names in the universe to appear at all.

The anchor is the index's own highest close in the last 60 sessions, taken from price rather than from our recorded regime — so it does not move when MarketSmith relabels its status, and anyone can check it against a chart.

No reason is given, because the tape cannot give one. A group down 9% on crude and a group down 9% on one bad result look identical here; the News and Exchange filings sections below are where the difference lives.

News

Headlines for the market as a whole, newest first, from a Google News search. Company headlines sit on the setup cards and beside the names that ran.

Green and red are a **headline heuristic**: a few dozen words — 'bags order', 'wins contract' against 'probe', 'downgrade', 'profit falls'. It reads the headline and nothing else — not the article, not the exposure, not whether the move is already priced. It is there so the eye stops at the right row, and it is not a signal.

Open trades

The book, as this service records it — priced off the same series the charts are drawn from.

1 open, 0 with a stop that has moved. 'locked' is where the stop sits relative to entry in units of the original risk — positive means the trade can no longer lose.

How the market opened

From MarketSmith's pre-open note, for today only.

GIFT Nifty is the index, not a stock. A name moves roughly with it only if its beta is near 1, and `check_open_gap` prints that caveat beside every order it names. Run that command for the resting triggers this open would fill through — it is the actionable half and it is deliberately not duplicated here.

MarketSmith

The emails the gate is read from, newest first.

MarketSmith's Buy Watchlist. Our universe holds tickers and the mail publishes company names, so a blank 'in our universe' is an unmatched name, not an absent one — match by eye against the scan.

Model portfolio moves

'parsed as' is the subject-line classifier, which recognises only status-change alerts — 'unrecognised' on a daily commentary is by design, not a failure. 'body says' is the Market Pulse read out of the mail itself; see `show_marketsmith` for the whole mail.

Newest mail (2026-10-12 08:59 IST): Downtrend — but the global table says Rally Attempt, which disagrees.

Nifty rose 1.30% to 22,520.45, snapping an eight-week losing streak.

Status: On October 8, the market transitioned into a Downtrend after the Nifty breached its previous low of 22,217.30 and extended its decline to a fresh low of 22,180, while remaining below all key moving averages. However, on October 9, the index held above the recent low of 22,180 and closed in positive territory, marking Day 1 of a new Rally Attempt . The recovery was primarily driven by large-cap stocks, with IT and FMCG heavyweights leading the gains. During a market downtrend , capital preservation should take priority, as fresh buying carries higher risk and weaker reward potential. Avoid new positions and remember that cash is also a position until conditions improve and quality stocks form constructive breakouts. Reduce weaker holdings, protect accumulated profits and apply strict stop-losses, including the 7–8% sell rule. Meanwhile, continue researching resilient stocks and build a watchlist of potential leaders for the next uptrend. Going ahead, the market status could shift to a Rally Attempt if the Nifty closes in positive territory or ends the session in the upper half of its daily range and successfully holds that low for three consecutive sessions. A subsequent Follow-Through Day (FTD) would be essential to confirm a transition back to an Uptrend, at which point leadership stocks with strong relative strength would come into focus.

They say: The market is in a Downtrend , where the emphasis shifts decisively from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Although buying on pullbacks during a correction may appear attractive, history shows that premature entries in a weak market carry low probabilities of success. It is prudent to remain patient and allow market conditions to stabilize before committing fresh capital. Our approach in this phase is selective and cautious: Avoid new buys: Breakouts tend to fail in weak markets. Holding cash is a valid position until conditions improve. Protect capital: Exit weaker stocks, lock in prior gains, and strictly follow stop-loss rules, including the 7–8% sell discipline. Prepare for the next uptrend: Continue researching and build a watchlist of stocks showing relative strength and constructive setups. Stay informed: Track daily market updates for early signals of trend improvement. (MarketSmith's instruction, not ours — where it disagrees with the rulebook, the rulebook decides.)

IPOs — mainboard

A separate instrument and a separate decision. No gate here reads a chart.

GMP is an unregulated over-the-counter quote with no print behind it. Measured over 295 listings it correlates 0.87 with the realised listing gain and overstates it by about 2.6pp; a zero GMP has averaged -6.6% and was positive 29% of the time. The subscription columns are the exchange's own and are the half that can be verified.

SME is excluded. Run backtest_gmp to re-measure any of the above.

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid

Monday 12 October, written at 10:15. The board went from two names to seven over the weekend, and Jio’s band is finally real. ₹1,065–1,119, raising about ₹30,213 Cr, lot of 13 shares at ₹14,547, anchors 19 October. That is below the ₹1,150–1,220 the early reports carried and far below the ₹1,350–1,450 one source ran last week, so the valuation is better than the work on this page assumed on 7 October — which is the right direction for a rumour to have been wrong in. HD Fire Protect takes anchors today and opens tomorrow, and its premium recovered with Friday’s market: ₹55 back to ₹86, 31.7%, above where it was before Thursday’s fall. And five more open together on 15 October — Bonfiglioli, Tonbo Imaging, Zetwerk, Sahjanand Medical and Fusion CX — with bands announced today. Held: nothing in equities.

Seven mainboard issues in one week, into a market MarketSmith classes as a Downtrend, is itself the story. Jio alone takes ₹30,213 Cr and Zetwerk ₹5,000 Cr; that money is drawn out of the same pool that has just seen four consecutive weekly falls in forex reserves and ₹12,943 Cr of foreign selling in a single session. A primary-market rush is not usually what a weak secondary market needs, and the sequencing matters for us: whatever is decided about HD Fire tomorrow is decided before any of the five that follow has shown a book. What this page does not yet have on those five is their accounts, and it will not pretend otherwise. The structures are known and they are the half that cannot be dressed: Bonfiglioli is 100% OFS by its Italian parent, Tonbo is an OFS of up to 1.22 Cr shares, Zetwerk is mixed — ₹2,600 Cr fresh against an OFS of 9.68 Cr shares. Revenue, profit and the multiples come before any call on them, and that work is owed by Wednesday morning, not Thursday.

Exchange filings

What the companies told the exchange, for names we follow.

Most filings are housekeeping — meetings, trading windows, newspaper copies. Only the categories that can move a price are flagged. The exchange's own category is kept verbatim rather than mapped onto our vocabulary, so a new one shows up unfamiliar instead of silently becoming 'other'.

This is the source a news search is not: a filing is dated, typed, keyed on the NSE symbol, and legally required. Searching news for RRKABEL the same day returned a festival marketing story twice and a two-month-old AGM notice.

Broker coverage

Context only. Nothing reads this as a gate.

A broker target is published after the move, by a firm with a relationship, and revised toward the price rather than ahead of it. A Hold with a target below the market is the useful case.