IPO review — 2026-10-13

Tuesday 13 October, written at 09:20. HD Fire Protect opens this morning, and the anchor book answered the question this page set yesterday. It called the anchor allocation “the first verifiable number this issue has produced”, and it came in strong: ₹213.11 Cr from 25 funds, allotted at the top of the band at ₹271, with Indian mutual funds taking 71.88% of it. That is the full anchor allocation taken up, by domestic institutions, at the highest price on offer. The other half of the board moved the opposite way overnight. Tonbo Imaging’s premium went from ₹270 to ₹427, a 61% expected listing gain, while Zetwerk’s halved from ₹30 to ₹16 and Bonfiglioli, Sahajanand and Fusion CX all softened. One name is being bid and the rest are being sold. Held: nothing in equities.

IPO	call	GMP	GMP %	expected listing	apply as	horizon	book
HD Fire Protect	OPEN TODAY — apply retail, sell on listing	₹86	+31.7%	~+29%	Retail — ₹14,905 at 55 shares. One lot.	Listing-day sell. Nothing here supports a hold at 40×.	opens today · closes 15 Oct
Tonbo Imaging India	PREMIUM RAN 58% OVERNIGHT — accounts owed before any call	₹427	+61.0%	not forecast — see note	Undecided. No published profit figure read yet.	Revisit tomorrow with the accounts, before the book opens	opens 15 Oct
The rest of the 15 October book	SOFTENING WHILE TONBO RUNS	all four fell	+0.0%	—	Undecided — accounts owed tomorrow	With Tonbo, tomorrow	opens 15 Oct
Jio Platform	BAND HOLDING — premium firm while the rest soften	₹182	+16.3%	~+14%	Retail — 13 shares, ₹14,547. 35% retail quota.	Decide at the anchor book on 19 October	anchors 19 Oct

What the anchor book does and does not settle. It settles that institutions would pay ₹271 for HD Fire in this tape — 25 of them, mostly domestic mutual funds, taking the whole allocation at the ceiling rather than the floor. It does not settle the valuation, which is unchanged: forty times earnings for 6.4% profit growth, margins compressing, a cash conversion cycle stretched to 102 days, and both sellers the promoters taking the entire ₹712 Cr out. This page has been wrong about institutional demand before — it called thin QIB books decisive four times in September and was wrong four times — and the lesson taken was to quote those numbers rather than forecast from them. So: the number is strong, it is quoted, and it is a reason to apply rather than a reason to hold. Tonbo is the one to be careful about. A 61% grey-market premium on an issue that is entirely an offer for sale, at a ₹4,010 Cr valuation, with no published profit figure this page has yet read, is not a bargain being spotted. It is a theme being bought — defence, in the week Goodluck India was named sole supplier of 155 mm shells and Zen Technologies chased a ₹6,000 Cr tender. The accounts are owed tomorrow, before the 15 October books open, and no call belongs on it until they are read.

HD Fire Protect

OPEN TODAY — apply retail, sell on listing

13–15 Oct · allotment 16 Oct · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712.31 Cr, entirely OFS · 100% OFS — 2,62,84,500 shares, both sellers are the promoters

anchor book FULL at the top band25 funds, 71.88% domestic MFsRoE 30.17%, RoCE 40.33%EBITDA margin 30.75%40.7× FY26 for 6.4% PAT growth100% OFS — company receives nothingcash conversion cycle out to 102 daysMiddle East export exposure, Brent above $100

expected listing~+29%

GMP ₹86 · +31.7% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

anchor raise: ₹213.11 Cr
anchor price: ₹271 — top of band
anchor funds: 25
domestic MF share: 71.88%
GMP: ₹86 · 31.7%
P/E post: 40.7×
FY26 PAT: ₹116.79 Cr
PAT growth: +6.4%
RoCE: 40.33%
retail min: ₹14,905

Yesterday this page said the anchor allocation was the first verifiable number the issue would produce, and to read it rather than forecast from it. Here it is. ₹213.11 Cr, which is the full anchor allocation, placed with 25 funds at ₹271 — the top of the band, not the bottom — and 71.88% of it went to Indian mutual funds rather than to foreign money that can leave on Thursday. Bajaj Life and Allianz Global are named among them. That is a genuine institutional vote, and it is the only hard evidence this issue has. It does not touch the arithmetic: 40.7 times earnings for 6.4% profit growth is still a PEG above six, margins still compressed from 31.89% to 30.75%, working capital still deteriorated to a 102-day cycle, and the company still receives none of the ₹712 Cr because both sellers are the promoters. The business is genuinely good — RoE 30%, RoCE 40%, a 23% net margin in a niche it leads — which is why it will find buyers. The price is what is wrong, and a listing pop is the only part of it worth owning. One lot, retail, sold on day one. Do not scale to sHNI: ₹2 L into a forty-times stock with decelerating earnings, in a market MarketSmith still calls a Downtrend, is a position rather than a cheap option.

Tonbo Imaging India

PREMIUM RAN 58% OVERNIGHT — accounts owed before any call

15–19 Oct · band ₹665–700 · ₹852 Cr · 100% OFS — 1.22 Cr shares, no fresh capital

GMP ₹270 → ₹427 in one sessionhighest premium on the board by 29pp100% OFS at a ₹4,010 Cr valuationno published PAT figure read yetdefence theme bid hard this week

expected listingnot forecast — see note

GMP ₹427 · +61.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹665–700
raise: ₹852 Cr
valuation sought: ₹4,010 Cr
shares offered: 1.22 Cr
GMP 12 Oct: ₹270 · 38.6%
GMP today: ₹427 · 61.0%
fresh capital: nil

A premium that moves 58% in one session is information about sentiment, not about the company, and the company has not published anything in that window. Nothing changed at Tonbo overnight; what changed is that defence became the thing to own, in the same week Goodluck India’s arm was named sole supplier of 155 mm M1A4 shells to Munitions India and Zen Technologies was reported chasing ₹6,000 Cr of a ₹20,000 Cr tender. The structure is the part that is knowable and it is the unflattering half. ₹852 Cr, every rupee of it an offer for sale of 1.22 Cr shares, at a valuation of ₹4,010 Cr. The company raises nothing and builds nothing; existing holders are selling into enthusiasm. That is not disqualifying on its own — HD Fire is the same shape and this page is applying for it — but HD Fire has published accounts and an anchor book, and Tonbo has neither here yet. No call until the revenue, the profit and the multiple are read. That work is owed tomorrow, which leaves one clear session before the book opens on the 15th. A 61% premium is a reason to hurry it, not a reason to skip it.

The rest of the 15 October book

SOFTENING WHILE TONBO RUNS

15–19 Oct · Bonfiglioli · Zetwerk · Sahajanand · Fusion CX · band see stats · Zetwerk ~₹5,000 Cr; others to confirm · Bonfiglioli 100% OFS · Zetwerk ₹2,600 Cr fresh + 9.68 Cr OFS

Zetwerk GMP halved, 30 → 16Bonfiglioli 175 → 155Sahajanand 40 → 36Fusion CX 25 → 20Zetwerk is the only one raising real capital

expected listing—

GMP all four fell · +0.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

Bonfiglioli: 586 · ₹155 · 26.5%
Zetwerk: 151 · ₹16 · 10.6%
Sahajanand Medical: 344 · ₹36 · 10.5%
Fusion CX: 289 · ₹20 · 6.9%
Tonbo, for contrast: 700 · ₹427 · 61.0%

Every one of these four fell overnight while Tonbo rose 58%. That is the useful observation on the day: this is not a rising tide under the primary market, it is money concentrating into one name and leaving the others. Zetwerk is the sharpest — its premium halved, from ₹30 to ₹16 — and it is the only issue in the whole cluster raising real capital, ₹2,600 Cr of fresh money against an offer for sale of 9.68 Cr shares. The grey market is paying up for the pure secondary sale and marking down the one that funds a business, which is worth noticing even though it decides nothing. Accounts on all four are owed tomorrow, with Tonbo, before the books open on the 15th.

Jio Platform

BAND HOLDING — premium firm while the rest soften

21–23 Oct · anchors 19 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band ₹1,065–1,119 · ~₹30,213 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS

GMP firmed 172 → 182 while four others fellno OFS — every rupee goes in35% retail quota makes allotment plausible₹27,500 Cr of it repays debt₹30,213 Cr drawn from a thin market

expected listing~+14%

GMP ₹182 · +16.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹1,065–1,119
raise: ~₹30,213 Cr
lot: 13 sh · ₹14,547
GMP 12 Oct: ₹172 · 15.4%
GMP today: ₹182 · 16.3%
anchors: 19 Oct

Quietly the second-best news on the board: Jio’s premium firmed from ₹172 to ₹182 on a night when four of the six other issues fell. On a ₹30,213 Cr issue that is harder to move than on a small one, so it carries more weight than the percentage suggests. The case is unchanged from yesterday: entirely fresh capital, which is the one structural signal that cannot be dressed, but ₹27,500 Cr of it repays borrowings rather than building anything — a deleveraging deserves a lower multiple than a growth raise, not a higher one. The 35% retail quota remains the strongest practical argument for applying. Its own anchor book prints on 19 October, and on the evidence of HD Fire this morning, that is the number to decide on.

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid