equity-service · scan of 14 October 2026

Trading Book

Generated 2026-10-14 09:26 IST

TIS setups

The four TIS scans — daily and weekly, stocks and ETFs. Runs: SWING 2026-10-13 17:30 IST; WEEKLY 2026-10-13 17:33 IST; ETF 2026-10-13 17:40 IST; ETF_WEEKLY 2026-10-13 17:40 IST

SWING — 879 scanned, 348 with a stop derived, 13 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 1 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows — blocked by G3 x12, G5 x6. sizing: Rs 20,000 risk / Rs 500,000 cap (defaults - 2 tenants configured)

WEEKLY — 879 scanned, 208 with a stop derived, 3 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows — blocked by G4 x3, G5 x1. sizing: Rs 20,000 risk / Rs 500,000 cap (defaults - 2 tenants configured)

ETF — 23 scanned, 15 with a stop derived, 0 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows. sizing: Rs 20,000 risk / Rs 500,000 cap (defaults - 2 tenants configured)

ETF: nothing actionable, and nothing within one gate of it (15 names with a stop derived, none at ≥6 of 7).

ETF_WEEKLY — 23 scanned, 13 with a stop derived, 0 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows. sizing: Rs 20,000 risk / Rs 500,000 cap (defaults - 2 tenants configured)

ETF_WEEKLY: nothing actionable, and nothing within one gate of it (13 names with a stop derived, none at ≥6 of 7).

Rows are the scan's own record, not a recomputation. 'blocked by' lists every failing gate, not the first.

A *candidate* is any name the scanner could derive a pivot and a stop for, before a single gate is judged; the gates are then scored on every one of them so that a six-of-seven is visible the morning after. The shortlist a reader means by 'passed the gates' is the ≥6 count.

'to entry' is how far the buy trigger sits above the last price the scan saw — not an overnight gap. For the daily scanners the trigger is 0.2% over the last close, so a larger figure means the quote has since moved; negative means the market is already through it.

Other scanners

The two that are not TIS. Both are in the nightly scan, but only the four TIS scanners feed the agent: STRIKE is intraday and everything placed here is CNC, so these rows are read by hand. STRIKE is SWING with a 2R target; REVERSAL buys a washout and enters at the market, so its rows are judged on R1-R3 rather than on the eight gates. Runs: STRIKE 2026-10-13 17:36 IST; REVERSAL 2026-10-13 17:38 IST

STRIKE — 879 scanned, 348 with a stop derived, 13 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 1 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows — blocked by G3 x12, G5 x6. sizing: Rs 20,000 risk / Rs 500,000 cap (defaults - 2 tenants configured)

REVERSAL — 589 scanned, 406 with a stop derived, 0 at ≥6 of 7 gates, 0 actionable, actionable plus the ≥6-gate watch rows. sizing: Rs 20,000 risk / Rs 500,000 cap (defaults - 2 tenants configured)

REVERSAL: nothing actionable, and nothing within one gate of it (406 names with a stop derived, none at ≥6 of 7).

A *candidate* is any name the scanner could derive a pivot and a stop for, before a single gate is judged; the gates are then scored on every one of them so that a six-of-seven is visible the morning after. The shortlist a reader means by 'passed the gates' is the ≥6 count.

What ran

The session before the last one, so each move has a day of follow-through beside it. `next` is that following session — a run given straight back is a different event from one that held.

119 names moved 3% or more; showing 15.

Themes: sectors with two or more of the 119 movers. This is what the list is read for — which group is working, so the next setup taken is in it. 'held' is how many kept the move the next session; a theme LAGGING on the RRG while leading the tape is a disagreement to resolve before sizing in it.

The 'why' column is the top headline a news search returned for that name, coloured by the same heuristic the News section explains. A blank means nothing was written, which for a name up 15% is itself worth noticing: a move with no story behind it is a move to distrust.

Group moves among the names shown — Food-Packaged x3; Retail/Whlsle-Jewelry x2; Paper & Paper Products x2. The themes table below groups *all* the movers, not just these.

5 of 15 closed 20% or more above their 20MA — continuation spikes, not base breakouts, which is why the scan finds no tight stop under them.

Regime by index

Each index judged on its own by the same rules as the market status — distribution days, rally attempt, follow-through. Reading only: the gate reads the market status, which is computed from the broad indices alone.

Broad indices

Sectors

A sector's distribution count is weaker evidence than the market's, and knowingly so. The bars carry total cash-market volume rather than the instrument's own, so the 'on higher volume' half of a distribution day is a fact about the whole market and only the price half belongs to the sector. Read it as 'this sector fell on days the market traded heavily'.

The proxies are ETFs, not the indices. An ETF can trade at a premium and carries its own liquidity; on a thin day its close is a worse reading of the sector than the index's own would be. It is what the bhavcopy gives us.

A blank MarketSmith column means their mail did not name that index, which is not a disagreement. They publish one headline status — which belongs to the Nifty and is shown on that row — and a sector block beneath it. There is no published line for smallcap, midcap, Next 50, PSU bank or healthcare.

The Nifty row can read Rally Attempt here while the gate stays shut, and that is not a contradiction. This column is the reporting map, which calls a held attempt what MarketSmith calls it; the gate reads the market status, which leaves a correction on a follow-through day and nothing else.

What the gate refused

Every setup the market filter turned down in the last two trading weeks, followed forward bar by bar with the entry and stop the scanner actually derived.

never triggered 20 · stopped 3 · open 22 · no bars yet 2

47 distinct setups over 10 scan days, 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-13, across 47 symbols. Refused for: breadth 69, computed status missing or downtrend 154 (before de-duplication; a setup can fail both).

Of the 25 that would have filled, 12% stopped out. Across all of them, stopped and open together, the gate cost -0.81% per setup. That is the number to watch: one name that ran is a tail, and this is the distribution it came from.

A setup that never triggered was refused nothing — the buy would not have filled either way, so those are not a cost. Only the filled ones are.

Colour is from the gate's point of view. A refusal that went on to stop out is the gate working; one still open and in profit is the gate costing money.

What is holding up

Every name's return since the index's last peak close on 2026-08-06, 46 session(s) ago, grouped by industry. Two benchmarks over the same window: NIFTYBEES -7.62% and SMALLCAP -0.35%. A sector above the line is outperforming even where it is still negative — in a drawdown that is what leadership looks like. The comparison that counts is against the smallcap peer: this universe is broad and measuring it against fifty large caps flatters almost all of it.

Holding up — best median first. 36 of 69 sectors are beating the smallcap peer.

Taking the damage — worst median first.

Median, not mean: one name up 80% on a takeover bid should not make its whole sector look like leadership. A sector needs at least 3 names in the universe to appear at all.

The anchor is the index's own highest close in the last 60 sessions, taken from price rather than from our recorded regime — so it does not move when MarketSmith relabels its status, and anyone can check it against a chart.

No reason is given, because the tape cannot give one. A group down 9% on crude and a group down 9% on one bad result look identical here; the News and Exchange filings sections below are where the difference lives.

News

Headlines for the market as a whole, newest first, from a Google News search. Company headlines sit on the setup cards and beside the names that ran.

Green and red are a **headline heuristic**: a few dozen words — 'bags order', 'wins contract' against 'probe', 'downgrade', 'profit falls'. It reads the headline and nothing else — not the article, not the exposure, not whether the move is already priced. It is there so the eye stops at the right row, and it is not a signal.

Open trades

The book, as this service records it — priced off the same series the charts are drawn from.

1 open, 0 with a stop that has moved. 'locked' is where the stop sits relative to entry in units of the original risk — positive means the trade can no longer lose.

How the market opened

From MarketSmith's pre-open note, for today only.

GIFT Nifty is the index, not a stock. A name moves roughly with it only if its beta is near 1, and `check_open_gap` prints that caveat beside every order it names. Run that command for the resting triggers this open would fill through — it is the actionable half and it is deliberately not duplicated here.

MarketSmith

The emails the gate is read from, newest first.

MarketSmith's Buy Watchlist. Our universe holds tickers and the mail publishes company names, so a blank 'in our universe' is an unmatched name, not an absent one — match by eye against the scan.

Model portfolio moves

'parsed as' is the subject-line classifier, which recognises only status-change alerts — 'unrecognised' on a daily commentary is by design, not a failure. 'body says' is the Market Pulse read out of the mail itself; see `show_marketsmith` for the whole mail.

Newest mail (2026-10-14 09:02 IST): Rally Attempt.

Nifty gained over 1%, led by IT stocks and helped by cooling oil prices and the RBI's steps to support the rupee. The broader market lagged, however: midcaps edged up only slightly, smallcaps was flat, and breadth was roughly evenly split, so the rally was led by large caps rather than broad-based. Watch for a Follow-Through Day to confirm a shift to a Confirmed Uptrend , and stay tuned to our daily commentaries for updates. Start accumulating stronger stocks, but test the waters with smaller positions rather than going in aggressively. If the Rally Attempt fails, shift back to a defensive stance, keeping position sizes small enough that cutting losses doesn't dent your portfolio. Focus on stocks that stayed resilient during the Downtrend.

Status: The Indian equity market has moved from a Downtrend to a Rally Attempt yesterday. After the market was downgraded to a Downtrend on October 8, the Nifty 50 fell to a fresh low of 22,180. It has since held above that level for three consecutive sessions, meeting the technical criteria for an upgrade to a Rally Attempt . Yesterday, the Nifty gained over 1%, led by IT stocks and helped by cooling oil prices and the RBI's steps to support the rupee. The broader market lagged, however: midcaps edged up only slightly, smallcaps was flat, and breadth was roughly evenly split, so the rally was led by large caps rather than broad-based. Watch for a Follow-Through Day to confirm a shift to a Confirmed Uptrend , and stay tuned to our daily commentaries for updates. Start accumulating stronger stocks, but test the waters with smaller positions rather than going in aggressively. If the Rally Attempt fails, shift back to a defensive stance, keeping position sizes small enough that cutting losses doesn't dent your portfolio. Focus on stocks that stayed resilient during the Downtrend —check out what our analysts are watching now. From here, we'd want to see a Follow-Through Day or a fresh Nifty high before upgrading the market to a Confirmed Uptrend . If that plays out, focus should shift to stocks showing the best relative strength and strongest accumulation—those that recover the quickest often go on to lead the next run higher. On the flip side, a breach of Nifty's recent low of 22,217.30 would revert the market status back to a Downtrend , calling for renewed caution.

They say: A rally attempt signals the market’s effort to recover from a downtrend, but not all attempts succeed. This is a waiting phase where investors should observe whether the market transitions into a confirmed uptrend. Here’s what we recommend: Watch for a follow-through day , which confirms a shift to a confirmed uptrend . Stay updated with our daily market commentaries. You can start accumulating stronger stocks, but avoid going in too aggressively. Test the waters with smaller position sizes before committing more capital. If the rally attempt fails, be ready to shift back to a defensive approach. Manage position sizes carefully so that cutting losses doesn’t significantly impact your portfolio. Focus on stocks that showed resilience during the downtrend. Check out the stocks our analysts are watching now (MarketSmith's instruction, not ours — where it disagrees with the rulebook, the rulebook decides.)

IPOs — mainboard

A separate instrument and a separate decision. No gate here reads a chart.

GMP is an unregulated over-the-counter quote with no print behind it. Measured over 295 listings it correlates 0.87 with the realised listing gain and overstates it by about 2.6pp; a zero GMP has averaged -6.6% and was positive 29% of the time. The subscription columns are the exchange's own and are the half that can be verified.

SME is excluded. Run backtest_gmp to re-measure any of the above.

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid

Wednesday 14 October, written at 10:05. Tonbo Imaging’s accounts are in, and they are the opposite of what a 69% grey-market premium implies. Revenue fell 22.7% in FY26, profit fell 30%, operating cash flow was negative in both FY25 and FY26 while the company reported profits, working capital stretched from 152 days to 517, and Q1 FY27 closed with a ₹17.74 Cr loss. At ₹700 that is about 79 times earnings that are going backwards. This page owed these numbers today and they arrive as a refusal. HD Fire’s first real book is also in, and it is good: 4.62× on day one, with HNI at 11.38× and retail at 3.78×. It closes tomorrow. Fusion CX opened today — its dates moved from 15–19 to 14–16 October, so the window is live now rather than next week. Held: nothing in equities.

The two issues on this page are the same structure and opposite businesses, and the grey market has them the wrong way round. Both are 100% offers for sale by existing holders; neither company receives a rupee. HD Fire earns 30% on equity and 40% on capital, converts its profit into cash, and asks 40.7× for 6.4% growth — expensive, which is why this page says sell it on listing rather than hold it. Tonbo asks roughly 79× for earnings that fell 30%, having burned cash in both of the last two years and with a quarter of losses already on the board. The premium on the second is more than double the premium on the first. That is what a theme does to a price. Defence has been the thing to own since Goodluck India was named sole supplier of 155 mm shells and Zen Technologies went after a ₹20,000 Cr tender, and Tonbo is the only listed-adjacent way to buy it this week. None of that is in the accounts. Four days ago this page wrote that a premium moving 58% in a session is information about sentiment and not about the company. The accounts have now confirmed which of the two it was.

Exchange filings

What the companies told the exchange, for names we follow.

Most filings are housekeeping — meetings, trading windows, newspaper copies. Only the categories that can move a price are flagged. The exchange's own category is kept verbatim rather than mapped onto our vocabulary, so a new one shows up unfamiliar instead of silently becoming 'other'.

This is the source a news search is not: a filing is dated, typed, keyed on the NSE symbol, and legally required. Searching news for RRKABEL the same day returned a festival marketing story twice and a two-month-old AGM notice.

Broker coverage

Context only. Nothing reads this as a gate.

A broker target is published after the move, by a firm with a relationship, and revised toward the price rather than ahead of it. A Hold with a target below the market is the useful case.