Thursday 15 October, written at 11:20. Four issues opened this morning, HD Fire closes tonight, and with every prospectus now read the grey market has the cluster ranked almost exactly upside down. The highest premium on the board, Tonbo at 71.4%, belongs to the only company here whose revenue and profit both fell. The best set of accounts — Bonfiglioli, growing 29%, debt-free, 34% on capital — carries 30%. The loss-making one carries 15%. HD Fire is 16.51× subscribed with one session left, NII at 48.71× and retail at 11.36×, which is a strong book and also means retail allotment is now roughly a one-in-twelve lottery. Held: nothing in equities.
HD Fire Protect
FINAL DAY — book strong, allotment now a lottery13–15 Oct · CLOSES TODAY · allotment 16 Oct · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712.31 Cr, entirely OFS · 100% OFS — both sellers are the promoters
16.51× with a session still to runNII 48.71×anchor FULL at the top band, 71.88% domestic MFsRoE 30.17%, RoCE 40.33%retail 11.36× — allotment ~1 in 12QIB only 1.49× going into the last day40.7× for 6.4% PAT growth
- day 1
- 4.62×
- day 2
- 16.51×
- QIB
- 1.49×
- NII
- 48.71×
- retail
- 11.36×
- anchor
- ₹213.11 Cr at ₹271
- GMP
- ₹89 · 32.8%
- P/E post
- 40.7×
<strong>The book more than tripled on day two</strong>, 4.62× to 16.51×, with NII doing the lifting at 48.71×. Retail at 11.36× is the number that changes what applying means: a single lot is now roughly a one-in-twelve draw, and it will lengthen again today. That is not a reason to skip — the expected value of a free option on a 33% premium is still positive — but it is a reason not to plan around receiving shares. <strong>QIB at 1.49× with one session left is the only soft spot</strong>, and institutions overwhelmingly bid on the final day, so tonight's number is the one worth reading. The anchor book already answered the question in advance: ₹213.11 Cr placed at the top of the band, 71.88% with domestic mutual funds. Nothing in the accounts has moved — 40.7 times for 6.4% growth, entirely a promoter exit — so the call is unchanged. One lot, retail, sold on listing.
Bonfiglioli Transmissions
THE BEST ACCOUNTS ON THE BOARD15–19 Oct · opened today · band ₹558–586 · ~₹2,534 Cr · 100% OFS by the Italian parent
PAT +29.2% to ₹148.58 Crrevenue +17.9% to ₹1,139.17 CrDEBT-FREE, no borrowings since CY24ROCE 24.53% → 34.05%H1 FY27 EBITDA ₹223.87 Cr vs ₹176.43 Cr~46.3× at the upper band100% OFS — the parent is selling
- band
- ₹558–586
- size
- ~₹2,534 Cr
- market cap
- ~₹11,017 Cr
- FY26 revenue
- ₹1,139.17 Cr
- FY26 PAT
- ₹148.58 Cr
- PAT growth
- +29.2%
- ROCE
- 34.05%
- P/E upper
- ~46.3×
- GMP
- ₹178 · 30.4%
- lot
- 25 sh · ₹14,650
<strong>Set beside the other three, this is the only one that reads like a business rather than a theme.</strong> Profit up 29.2%, revenue up 17.9%, <em>no borrowings at all since CY24</em>, and return on capital employed that went from 24.53% to 34.05% — a company earning more on less. H1 FY27 EBITDA is already ₹223.87 Cr against ₹176.43 Cr a year earlier, so the growth is continuing into the year being sold, which is precisely what Tonbo cannot say. <strong>It is not cheap and it is still a full exit.</strong> 46.3 times at the top is a growth multiple, not a bargain, and every rupee of the ₹2,534 Cr goes to Bonfiglioli S.p.A. rather than into the company. A parent selling a profitable subsidiary at 46× is doing something rational for itself. But a 29% grower with no debt and 34% on capital is the only name on this board where holding past the listing is an argument rather than a hope, and it is carrying less than half Tonbo’s premium.
Tonbo Imaging India
AVOID — the premium is rising, the accounts are not15–19 Oct · opened today · band ₹665–700 · ₹852.18 Cr · 100% OFS — the company receives nothing
revenue −22.7% in FY26PAT −30% in FY26Q1 FY27 a ₹17.74 Cr LOSSnegative operating cash flow FY25 AND FY26working capital 152 → 280 → 517 days~79× earnings that are fallinghighest premium on the board
expected listing~+61% implied
- GMP 12 Oct
- 38.6%
- GMP 13 Oct
- 61.0%
- GMP 14 Oct
- 69.3%
- GMP today
- 71.4%
- FY26 revenue
- ₹362.65 Cr (−22.7%)
- FY26 PAT
- ₹50.88 Cr (−30%)
- Q1 FY27
- −₹17.74 Cr
- WC days
- 517
- P/E at ₹700
- ~79×
<strong>The premium has gone 38.6%, 61%, 69.3%, 71.4% across four sessions and not one line of the accounts has changed in that time.</strong> Revenue fell 22.7%. Profit fell 30%. The first quarter of the year being sold is already a ₹17.74 Cr loss. Operating cash flow was negative in both FY25 and FY26 while the company reported profits in both, and working capital stretched from 152 days to 517 — seventeen months to turn stock and receivables back into cash. <strong>What is being bought is the word defence</strong>, in the week Goodluck India was named sole supplier of 155 mm shells and Zen Technologies went after a ₹20,000 Cr tender. Nothing in the filings participates in that. At ₹700 the multiple is roughly 79 times earnings that are going backwards, for a ₹4,010 Cr valuation, in an issue where every rupee of the ₹852 Cr goes to existing holders. <strong>This call will be wrong if it lists at +60%, and it is recorded before the print rather than after.</strong>
Zetwerk & Sahajanand
ZETWERK LOSS-MAKING · SAHAJANAND EXPENSIVE BUT IMPROVING15–19 Oct · both opened today · band Zetwerk ₹151 · Sahajanand ₹344 · Zetwerk ~₹5,000 Cr · Sahajanand to confirm · Zetwerk ₹2,600 Cr fresh + 9.68 Cr OFS · Sahajanand OFS
Zetwerk FY26 LOSS of ₹1,606.17 CrZetwerk is the only fresh capital on the boardZetwerk order book ₹13,062 Cr, 1.39× revenueSahajanand PAT ₹25.15 Cr → ₹69.08 CrSahajanand ~53× FY26 dilutedSahajanand 73.87% of revenue from outside India
expected listing~+13% / +12%
- Zetwerk FY26 income
- ₹16,100.63 Cr
- Zetwerk FY26 result
- −₹1,606.17 Cr
- Zetwerk order book
- ₹13,062.40 Cr
- Zetwerk mfg EBITDA margin
- 6.56% Q1FY27 vs 4.83%
- Sahajanand FY26 revenue
- ₹1,210.50 Cr (+18.11%)
- Sahajanand FY26 PAT
- ₹69.08 Cr (was ₹25.15 Cr)
- Sahajanand P/E
- ~53×
<strong>Zetwerk is the only issue on this board raising real money and the only one losing it.</strong> ₹16,100.63 Cr of income for a loss of ₹1,606.17 Cr — a tenth of revenue, burned. The order book at ₹13,062 Cr is genuine and manufacturing EBITDA margin improved to 6.56% from 4.83%, so the direction is right; the distance is enormous. A business that must triple its margin to break even is not a listing-day trade and is not yet an investment. The grey market agrees for once, at 15.2%. <strong>Sahajanand is the more interesting of the two.</strong> Revenue up 18.11% to ₹1,210.50 Cr and profit from ₹25.15 Cr to ₹69.08 Cr — nearly tripled. Cardiac implants sold into 77 countries, with 73.87% of revenue earned outside India, which is both the strength and the currency risk. At roughly 53 times it is priced for that tripling to continue. The 12.2% premium is the lowest on the board, which is the market saying it does not believe it will.