IPO review — 2026-10-16

Friday 16 October, written at 09:55. The grey market marked down every issue on this board overnight except the one whose revenue and profit are both falling. Bonfiglioli went 30.4% to 23.9%, Zetwerk 15.2% to 9.9%, Fusion CX 12% to 7.6%, HD Fire 32.8% to 31.4%. Tonbo held at 71.4%. The subscription books say the same thing from the other side. Tonbo is 4× done with QIB already at 3.92×; Bonfiglioli — debt-free, growing 29%, 34% on capital — is 0.48× with QIB at 0.08×. HD Fire’s final book settled the one doubt this page had about it: QIB closed at 256.65× against 1.49× with a session to run. Allotment is finalised today and retail at 30.49× makes it about a one-in-thirty draw. Fusion CX closes tonight at 1.16× with QIB at 0.05×. Held: nothing in equities. Entries are blocked on breadth.

IPO	call	GMP	GMP %	expected listing	apply as	horizon	book
HD Fire Protect	ALLOTMENT TODAY — the QIB doubt resolved emphatically	₹85	+31.4%	~+29%	Closed. Nothing to do but check allotment.	Listing-day sell on 21 Oct. Unchanged throughout.	FINAL · QIB 256.65× · NII 203.21× · retail 30.49×
Fusion CX	SKIP — closes tonight and QIB never showed up	₹22	+7.6%	~+5%	Do not apply.	None.	day 3 · 1.16× · QIB 0.05× · NII 1.45× · retail 3.73×
Bonfiglioli Transmissions	APPLY — best accounts here, and the book is empty	₹140	+23.9%	~+21%	Retail — 25 shares, ₹14,650. Three sessions left.	The only name here where holding past listing is an argument.	day 2 · 0.48× · QIB 0.08× · NII 0.78× · retail 0.57×
Tonbo Imaging India	AVOID STANDS — and the call is losing	₹500	+71.4%	~+69% implied	Do not apply.	None.	day 2 · 4× · QIB 3.92× · NII 5.96× · retail 3.2×
Jio Platforms	OPENS TUESDAY — the issue that is draining this week	₹230	+20.6%	~+18%	Retail — 12 shares, ₹13,428 at the top band.	Decide before Tuesday; the book will be enormous.	opens 21 Oct
Paras Healthcare	OPENS TUESDAY — band just set, book not yet open	₹100	+14.4%	~+12%	No call yet.	Read the prospectus before Tuesday.	opens 21 Oct
Zetwerk & Sahajanand	BOTH MARKED DOWN · ZETWERK STILL LOSS-MAKING	₹15 / ₹45	+9.9%	~+7% / +11%	Zetwerk: no. Sahajanand: thin edge at best.	Neither earns a hold.	neither book has matched the exchange feed yet

There is a mechanical explanation for the empty books and it opens on Tuesday. Jio Platforms takes ₹1,065–1,119 a share for roughly ₹30,000 Cr on 21–23 October — comfortably the largest issue this market has seen. An institution that intends to bid for it does not tie up funds in a ₹2,534 Cr gearbox manufacturer the week before. That fits Bonfiglioli’s QIB at 0.08× far better than anything in its accounts does, and it means a weak book this week is weaker evidence about the company than it would usually be. It does not rescue the Tonbo call, and this page is not going to pretend otherwise. The same cash shortage should have emptied Tonbo’s book too and did not: QIB 3.92×, NII 5.96×, retail 3.2×, premium unmoved at 71.4% for a company whose revenue fell 22.7%, whose profit fell 30%, which lost ₹17.74 Cr in Q1 FY27 and which has run negative operating cash flow for two years. Institutions are choosing to be there. The avoid call was made on 13 October at 61% and is recorded again here at 71.4%, unchanged and so far losing. Two live scorecards now run on this page — Tonbo, where it says avoid and the market says 71.4%, and Bonfiglioli, where it says the accounts are the best on the board and the book says 0.48×. Both print within a fortnight.

HD Fire Protect

ALLOTMENT TODAY — the QIB doubt resolved emphatically

13–15 Oct · CLOSED · allotment today · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712.31 Cr, entirely OFS · 100% OFS — both sellers are the promoters

QIB 256.65× — the day-2 worry was wrongNII 203.21×anchor FULL at the top band, 71.88% domestic MFsRoE 30.17%, RoCE 40.33%retail 30.49× — allotment ~1 in 30GMP eased ₹89 → ₹8540.7× for 6.4% PAT growth

expected listing~+29%

GMP ₹85 · +31.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

day 1: 4.62×
day 2: 16.51×
FINAL: see QIB/NII
QIB: 256.65×
NII: 203.21×
retail: 30.49×
GMP: ₹85 · 31.4%
P/E post: 40.7×

Yesterday this page flagged QIB at 1.49× as the issue’s only soft spot and said institutions bid on the last day. They closed at 256.65×. That is not a marginal improvement, it is a different book: NII finished at 203.21× and retail at 30.49×, against 16.51× overall with a session still to run. The consequence is arithmetic. Retail at 30.49× makes a single lot roughly a one-in-thirty draw, so the realistic outcome for most applicants is no shares at all. That was always the plan’s weakness and it is now its shape: a free option that usually does not pay out. The premium eased from ₹89 to ₹85 — worth noting, not worth acting on, and on the measured overstatement that still implies about +29%. Nothing in the accounts moved: 40.7 times for 6.4% growth, every rupee to the promoters. If allotted, sell on 21 October.

Fusion CX

SKIP — closes tonight and QIB never showed up

14–16 Oct · CLOSES TODAY · lists 22 Oct · band ₹275–289 · ₹702 Cr · ₹500 Cr fresh + ₹202 Cr OFS (69.90 lakh sh)

QIB 0.05× on the final dayoverall 1.16× — barely coveredGMP ₹36.50 → ₹22 across three sessions~+5% expected after the measured overstatementretail 3.73× is the only bid here₹500 Cr of it is fresh capital

expected listing~+5%

GMP ₹22 · +7.6% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

GMP 14 Oct: ₹36.50
GMP 15 Oct: ₹22
GMP today: ₹22 · 7.6%
overall: 1.16×
QIB: 0.05×
NII: 1.45×
retail: 3.73×
expected listing: ~+5%

QIB at 0.05× going into the close is as close to a total institutional refusal as a mainboard book gets. Five per cent of the institutional portion, on the last day, when institutions bid late — HD Fire went from 1.49× to 256.65× in that same window, which is what a final session looks like when the demand exists. The premium has been falling the whole way, ₹36.50 on day one to ₹22 now. At 7.6%, after the 2.6-point overstatement this page applies to every GMP, the expectation is about +5% — and a 1.16× book has no retail scarcity behind it, so allotment is near-certain for anyone who applies. That is the wrong combination: you get the shares you asked for, in the issue nobody wanted, for five per cent. The one thing in its favour is that ₹500 Cr of the ₹702 Cr is fresh money going into the business rather than out to sellers. It is not enough tonight.

Bonfiglioli Transmissions

APPLY — best accounts here, and the book is empty

15–19 Oct · day 2 of 5 · band ₹558–586 · ~₹2,534 Cr · 100% OFS by the Italian parent

PAT +29.2% to ₹148.58 CrDEBT-FREE, no borrowings since CY24ROCE 24.53% → 34.05%H1 FY27 EBITDA ₹223.87 Cr vs ₹176.43 Crretail 0.57× — allotment near-certainQIB 0.08× on day 2GMP 30.4% → 23.9% overnight100% OFS — the parent is selling

expected listing~+21%

GMP ₹140 · +23.9% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹558–586
size: ~₹2,534 Cr
FY26 PAT: ₹148.58 Cr (+29.2%)
ROCE: 34.05%
P/E upper: ~46.3×
day 2 book: 0.48×
QIB: 0.08×
retail: 0.57×
GMP 15 Oct: 30.4%
GMP today: 23.9%

The accounts have not changed and the market’s opinion of them has halved. Profit up 29.2%, no borrowings at all since CY24, return on capital employed from 24.53% to 34.05%, H1 FY27 EBITDA already ahead of last year — and the book is 0.48× on day two with institutions at 0.08×, while the premium fell from 30.4% to 23.9% overnight. The footnote below argues this is about Jio rather than about Bonfiglioli, and the honest position is that it is partly both: a ₹2,534 Cr full exit by a parent, at 46 times, three sessions before the largest IPO in this market’s history, is a hard week to come to market in. For a retail applicant the weak book is an advantage, not a warning. Retail at 0.57× means a lot is near-certain rather than a one-in-thirty draw — the exact inverse of HD Fire. That changes what this application is: not a lottery ticket on a listing pop, but the one name on this board worth owning after it lists. Apply for the business; do not count on the pop.

Tonbo Imaging India

AVOID STANDS — and the call is losing

15–19 Oct · day 2 of 5 · band ₹665–700 · ₹852.18 Cr · 100% OFS — the company receives nothing

QIB 3.92× on day 2 — institutions are biddingthe ONLY issue whose GMP did not fallrevenue −22.7% in FY26PAT −30% in FY26Q1 FY27 a ₹17.74 Cr LOSSnegative operating cash flow FY25 AND FY26working capital 152 → 280 → 517 days~79× earnings that are falling

expected listing~+69% implied

GMP ₹500 · +71.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

GMP 12 Oct: 38.6%
GMP 13 Oct: 61.0%
GMP 14 Oct: 69.3%
GMP 15 Oct: 71.4%
GMP today: 71.4%
day 2 book: 4×
QIB: 3.92×
NII: 5.96×
FY26 revenue: ₹362.65 Cr (−22.7%)
Q1 FY27: −₹17.74 Cr
WC days: 517

Every other issue on this board was marked down overnight. This one was not, and its institutional book is 3.92× while Bonfiglioli’s is 0.08×. If the week’s weak books were purely about cash being held back for Jio, this book would be weak too. It is not. Institutions are actively choosing to be here. The accounts are unchanged and they are bad. Revenue −22.7%, profit −30%, a ₹17.74 Cr loss in the first quarter of the year being sold, operating cash flow negative in both FY25 and FY26 while profits were reported in both, working capital out to 517 days, and roughly 79 times earnings that are going backwards — for an issue where the company receives nothing. This page said avoid on 13 October at a 61% premium. It is 71.4% now and the book is strong. The call is unchanged and it is currently wrong. It is left standing, and recorded, because a call that is quietly revised once the market disagrees is not a record of anything.

Jio Platforms

OPENS TUESDAY — the issue that is draining this week

21–23 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band ₹1,065–1,119 · ~₹30,000 Cr (27 Cr fresh shares) · Fresh issue

the largest IPO this market has listedfresh issue — the money goes into the companyGMP 20.6% and firmsize alone makes a big listing pop unlikelyit is absorbing the liquidity the others wanted

expected listing~+18%

GMP ₹230 · +20.6% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹1,065–1,119
size: ~₹30,000 Cr
fresh shares: 27 Cr
lot: 12 sh · ₹13,428
GMP: ₹230 · 20.6%
opens: 21 Oct
lists: 28 Oct

This is the week’s most important issue and it has not opened yet. Roughly ₹30,000 Cr across 21–23 October at ₹1,065–1,119, a fresh issue, listing 28 October. The premium is ₹230 and has been firm, which after the measured overstatement implies about +18%. Two things follow for the rest of this page. The first is that a ₹30,000 Cr call on the market three sessions out is the most plausible reason Bonfiglioli’s institutional book is at 0.08×. The second is that size cuts both ways here: an issue this large is hard to squeeze, so the listing-day move is likely to be more orderly than the premium suggests, and retail allotment on a book this size will be its own lottery. No call yet. The prospectus detail that matters — what the fresh capital is for, and the margin trajectory — gets read before Tuesday, and the call goes on this page before the book opens rather than after.

Paras Healthcare

OPENS TUESDAY — band just set, book not yet open

21–23 Oct · band up to ₹693 · ₹1,800 Cr · ₹500 Cr fresh + ₹1,300 Cr OFS

₹500 Cr is fresh capital₹1,300 Cr of ₹1,800 Cr is a seller exitingGMP 14.4%, mid-tableopens the same day as Jio

expected listing~+12%

GMP ₹100 · +14.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: up to ₹693
size: ₹1,800 Cr
fresh: ₹500 Cr
OFS: ₹1,300 Cr
GMP: ₹100 · 14.4%
opens: 21 Oct

A hospital chain raising ₹1,800 Cr, of which ₹1,300 Cr is a shareholder leaving. The DRHP went in on 5 June and the band has only just been set, so the accounts get read properly before Tuesday rather than summarised from a price band here. The timing is the first thing to say about it. It opens on the same morning as a ₹30,000 Cr issue. Whatever its merits, it is competing for attention and for money with the largest listing this market has run, and the 14.4% premium is being quoted into that. No call until the prospectus is read.

Zetwerk & Sahajanand

BOTH MARKED DOWN · ZETWERK STILL LOSS-MAKING

15–19 Oct · day 2 of 5 · band Zetwerk ₹151 · Sahajanand ₹344 · Zetwerk ~₹5,000 Cr · Sahajanand to confirm · Zetwerk ₹2,600 Cr fresh + 9.68 Cr OFS · Sahajanand OFS

Zetwerk GMP 15.2% → 9.9% overnightZetwerk FY26 LOSS of ₹1,606.17 CrZetwerk order book ₹13,062 Cr, 1.39× revenueSahajanand GMP held, 12.2% → 13.1%Sahajanand PAT ₹25.15 Cr → ₹69.08 CrSahajanand ~53× FY26 dilutedno exchange book for either — cannot verify demand

expected listing~+7% / +11%

GMP ₹15 / ₹45 · +9.9% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

Zetwerk GMP 15 Oct: 15.2%
Zetwerk GMP today: 9.9%
Zetwerk FY26 result: −₹1,606.17 Cr
Zetwerk order book: ₹13,062.40 Cr
Sahajanand GMP today: 13.1%
Sahajanand FY26 PAT: ₹69.08 Cr (was ₹25.15 Cr)
Sahajanand P/E: ~53×

Zetwerk lost a third of its premium overnight, 15.2% to 9.9%, which is the sharpest markdown on the board. Nothing in the filings changed: ₹16,100.63 Cr of income for a ₹1,606.17 Cr loss, an order book of ₹13,062 Cr that is real, and a manufacturing EBITDA margin improving to 6.56% from 4.83%. A business that must triple its margin to break even was never a listing-day trade, and at 9.9% the grey market has stopped pretending it is one. Sahajanand is the only issue besides Tonbo whose premium did not fall, edging 12.2% to 13.1% — profit from ₹25.15 Cr to ₹69.08 Cr, cardiac implants into 77 countries, 73.87% of revenue earned abroad, priced at roughly 53 times for that to continue. Neither has matched the exchange’s subscription feed yet, so for both of these the demand side is unverified and the premium is the only signal available — which is exactly the signal this page trusts least.

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid