IPO review — 2026-10-19

Monday 19 October, written Saturday evening and refreshed at 11:00 Monday with live grey-market quotes. The subscription columns are still Friday's close — the exchange only aggregates today's bids this evening, and today is the last session for four of these. Four issues close tonight and the inversion this page has tracked all week got wider, not narrower. Tonbo — revenue down 22.7%, profit down 30%, a ₹17.74 Cr loss in Q1 — is now 7.78× subscribed with QIB at 3.95× and NII at 14.35×, and its premium rose again to 73.7%. Bonfiglioli — debt-free, growing 29%, 34% on capital — is 0.99×, QIB 0.16×, with one session left. Zetwerk's premium has collapsed from 15.2% to 4.6% in four sessions, which after the measured overstatement is roughly two per cent. HD Fire lists Tuesday on a final book of QIB 256.65×. Jio and Paras open Wednesday. Held: nothing in equities; entries blocked on breadth.

IPO	call	GMP	GMP %	expected listing	apply as	horizon	book
Bonfiglioli Transmissions	FINAL DAY — best accounts here, and the book is the question	₹130	+22.2%	~+20%	Retail — 25 shares, ₹14,650. Today or not at all.	The only name here where holding past listing is an argument.	day 3 · 0.99× · QIB 0.16× · NII 1.71× · retail 1.16×
Tonbo Imaging India	AVOID STANDS — final day, and the call is losing badly	₹520	+74.3%	~+72% implied	Do not apply.	None.	day 3 · 7.78× · QIB 3.95× · NII 14.35× · retail 7.13×
HD Fire Protect	LISTS TUESDAY — sell on listing	₹85	+31.4%	~+29%	Closed and allotted. Nothing to do until Tuesday.	Sell on listing day, 21 October. Unchanged throughout.	FINAL · QIB 256.65× · NII 203.21× · retail 30.49×
Zetwerk	NO — the premium has collapsed to almost nothing	₹5	+3.3%	~+1%	Do not apply.	None.	no exchange book matched
Sahajanand Medical	THIN — final day, premium still fading	₹25	+7.3%	~+5%	Thin edge at best.	Does not earn a hold.	no exchange book matched
Jio Platforms	OPENS WEDNESDAY — read the prospectus before it does	₹250	+22.3%	~+20%	Retail — 12 shares, ₹13,428 at the top band.	Decide by Tuesday night.	opens 21 Oct
Paras Healthcare	OPENS WEDNESDAY — no call yet	₹95	+13.7%	~+11%	No call yet.	Read the prospectus before Wednesday.	opens 21 Oct

Is Bonfiglioli’s book a verdict or just early? This board already answered that once. HD Fire sat at QIB 1.49× with one session to run and this page called it the issue’s only soft spot. It closed at 256.65×. Institutions bid on the last day, so 0.16× on a Friday is not the number to judge an issue by — tonight’s is. What would make it a verdict is the same figure at the close. Two live calls settle this week and both are recorded before the print. Tonbo: avoid, made 13 October at a 61% premium, restated at 71.4% and now at 73.7% against a 7.78× book. It is losing and it is not being revised, because a call quietly rewritten once the market disagrees is not a record. Bonfiglioli: the best accounts on the board, carrying a third of Tonbo’s premium and a book a fiftieth the size. One of those two readings of the same week is wrong and the listings will say which. The one thing that has gone exactly as written is HD Fire, where the day-2 QIB worry was called wrong in public on the 16th and the final book proved it.

Bonfiglioli Transmissions

FINAL DAY — best accounts here, and the book is the question

15–19 Oct · CLOSES TODAY · lists ~24 Oct · band ₹558–586 · ~₹2,534 Cr · 100% OFS by the Italian parent

PAT +29.2% to ₹148.58 CrDEBT-FREE, no borrowings since CY24ROCE 24.53% → 34.05%H1 FY27 EBITDA ₹223.87 Cr vs ₹176.43 Crbook doubled 0.48× → 0.99×retail 1.16× — allotment still near-certainQIB 0.16× with one session leftGMP 30.4% → 23.9% → 22.2%100% OFS — the parent is selling

expected listing~+20%

GMP ₹130 · +22.2% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

FY26 PAT: ₹148.58 Cr (+29.2%)
ROCE: 34.05%
P/E upper: ~46.3×
day 1: 0.48×
day 3: 0.99×
QIB: 0.16×
retail: 1.16×
GMP 15 Oct: 30.4%
GMP today: 22.2%

The accounts have not moved all week and the book has barely cleared one times. Profit up 29.2%, no borrowings since CY24, return on capital from 24.53% to 34.05%, H1 FY27 EBITDA already ahead of last year — and 0.99× on day three with institutions at 0.16×. The footnote argues this is not yet a verdict, and the evidence is on this same board. HD Fire was at QIB 1.49× with one session left and closed at 256.65×. Institutions bid last. So the number that matters is tonight’s, not Friday’s. For a retail applicant the weak book remains an advantage. Retail at 1.16× means a lot is close to certain, the inverse of HD Fire’s one-in-thirty. That is what this application is: not a lottery ticket on a pop, but the one name on this board worth owning after it lists. Apply for the business. Do not count on the pop, and be willing to be refunded if the book does not close.

Tonbo Imaging India

AVOID STANDS — final day, and the call is losing badly

15–19 Oct · CLOSES TODAY · band ₹665–700 · ₹852.18 Cr · 100% OFS — the company receives nothing

7.78× with a session still to runNII 14.35× — more than doubled overnightthe only premium that has risen all weekrevenue −22.7% in FY26PAT −30% in FY26Q1 FY27 a ₹17.74 Cr LOSSnegative operating cash flow FY25 AND FY26working capital 152 → 280 → 517 days~79× earnings that are falling

expected listing~+72% implied

GMP ₹520 · +74.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

GMP 12 Oct: 38.6%
GMP 15 Oct: 71.4%
GMP today: 74.3%
day 2 book: 4×
day 3 book: 7.78×
QIB: 3.95×
NII: 14.35×
FY26 revenue: ₹362.65 Cr (−22.7%)
Q1 FY27: −₹17.74 Cr
WC days: 517

The book nearly doubled again and the premium rose for the fifth session running. 7.78× overall, NII 14.35×, QIB 3.95× — on a company whose revenue fell 22.7%, whose profit fell 30%, which lost ₹17.74 Cr in the first quarter of the year being sold, whose operating cash flow was negative in both FY25 and FY26 while profits were reported, and whose working capital runs to 517 days. The company receives none of the ₹852 Cr. This page said avoid on 13 October at 61%. It is 73.7% now. The call is unchanged and it is losing. It is recorded here, before the print, for the same reason it was recorded then: the only version of this page worth keeping is one where a wrong call stays wrong on the record.

HD Fire Protect

LISTS TUESDAY — sell on listing

13–15 Oct · allotted · LISTS 21 OCT · band ₹258–271 · ₹712.31 Cr, entirely OFS · 100% OFS — both sellers are the promoters

QIB 256.65× finalanchor FULL at the top band, 71.88% domestic MFsRoE 30.17%, RoCE 40.33%retail 30.49× — most applicants got nothing40.7× for 6.4% PAT growth

expected listing~+29%

GMP ₹85 · +31.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

QIB: 256.65×
NII: 203.21×
retail: 30.49×
GMP: ₹85 · 31.4%
P/E post: 40.7×
lists: 21 Oct

The one call on this board that has gone exactly as written. On 15 October this page flagged QIB at 1.49× as the issue’s only soft spot and said institutions bid on the final day; the book closed at 256.65×, and the 16th recorded that the worry had been wrong. Nothing has changed in the accounts — 40.7 times for 6.4% growth, every rupee to the promoters — so the plan is the plan: sell into the listing on Tuesday. A 31.4% premium implies about +29% after the overstatement this page applies, and a book this size means most retail applicants are holding nothing to sell.

Zetwerk

NO — the premium has collapsed to almost nothing

15–19 Oct · CLOSES TODAY · band ₹151 · ~₹5,000 Cr · ₹2,600 Cr fresh + 9.68 Cr OFS

GMP 15.2% → 9.9% → 4.6% → 3.3%under +1% after the measured overstatementFY26 LOSS of ₹1,606.17 Crthe only issue raising real moneyorder book ₹13,062 Cr, 1.39× revenueno exchange book — demand unverified

expected listing~+1%

GMP ₹5 · +3.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

GMP 15 Oct: 15.2%
GMP 16 Oct: 9.9%
GMP today: 3.3%
FY26 income: ₹16,100.63 Cr
FY26 result: −₹1,606.17 Cr
order book: ₹13,062.40 Cr

Two thirds of the premium is gone in four sessions — 15.2% to 9.9% to 4.6% — and at 4.6%, after the 2.6-point overstatement this page applies to every GMP, the expectation is about two per cent. That is not a listing trade; it is a coin toss with costs. Nothing in the filings changed: ₹16,100.63 Cr of income for a ₹1,606.17 Cr loss, a real ₹13,062 Cr order book, and a manufacturing margin improving from 4.83% to 6.56%. A business that must triple its margin to break even was never a listing-day trade, and the grey market has now stopped pretending otherwise.

Sahajanand Medical

THIN — final day, premium still fading

15–19 Oct · CLOSES TODAY · band ₹344 · OFS · OFS

PAT ₹25.15 Cr → ₹69.08 Crrevenue +18.11% to ₹1,210.50 CrGMP 13.1% → 10.2% → 7.3%~53× FY26 diluted73.87% of revenue earned outside Indiano exchange book — demand unverified

expected listing~+5%

GMP ₹25 · +7.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

FY26 revenue: ₹1,210.50 Cr (+18.11%)
FY26 PAT: ₹69.08 Cr (was ₹25.15 Cr)
P/E: ~53×
GMP 16 Oct: 13.1%
GMP today: 7.3%

The better business of the two closing quietly tonight, and the market is not paying for it. Profit from ₹25.15 Cr to ₹69.08 Cr, revenue up 18.11%, cardiac implants sold into 77 countries — priced at roughly 53 times for that near-tripling to continue, with 73.87% of revenue earned abroad carrying the currency with it. The premium has eased from 13.1% to 10.2% and no exchange book has matched, so the demand side is unverified and the premium is the only signal available. It is also the signal this page trusts least. Eight per cent expected, on an unverified book, is a thin edge.

Jio Platforms

OPENS WEDNESDAY — read the prospectus before it does

21–23 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band ₹1,065–1,119 · ~₹30,000 Cr (27 Cr fresh shares) · Fresh issue

the largest IPO this market has listedfresh issue — the money goes into the companyGMP firming, 20.6% → 20.1% → 22.3%size alone makes a large pop unlikely

expected listing~+20%

GMP ₹250 · +22.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹1,065–1,119
size: ~₹30,000 Cr
lot: 12 sh · ₹13,428
GMP 16 Oct: 20.6%
GMP today: 22.3%
opens: 21 Oct
lists: 28 Oct

Still no call, and the prospectus gets read before there is one. The premium has held near 20% for a week, which after the measured overstatement implies about +18%, and the issue is fresh capital rather than an exit — the only one of the week that can say so besides Zetwerk. Its shadow over this week is the thing to carry forward. A ₹30,000 Cr call on the market two days out remains the most plausible reason Bonfiglioli’s institutional book sat at 0.16× on Friday. If that is right, tonight’s Bonfiglioli close should still be weak and that will be an argument about liquidity rather than about the company.

Paras Healthcare

OPENS WEDNESDAY — no call yet

21–23 Oct · band up to ₹693 · ₹1,800 Cr · ₹500 Cr fresh + ₹1,300 Cr OFS

₹500 Cr is fresh capital₹1,300 Cr of ₹1,800 Cr is a seller exitingGMP 14.4% → 13.7%opens the same morning as Jio

expected listing~+11%

GMP ₹95 · +13.7% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: up to ₹693
size: ₹1,800 Cr
fresh: ₹500 Cr
OFS: ₹1,300 Cr
GMP 16 Oct: 14.4%
GMP today: 13.7%

A hospital chain raising ₹1,800 Cr, of which ₹1,300 Cr is a shareholder leaving. The accounts get read properly before Wednesday rather than summarised from a price band here. The timing remains the first thing to say about it: it opens on the same morning as a ₹30,000 Cr issue, and the 13.7% premium — easing, not firming — is being quoted into that.

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid