IPO review — 2026-10-12

Monday 12 October, written at 10:15. The board went from two names to seven over the weekend, and Jio’s band is finally real. ₹1,065–1,119, raising about ₹30,213 Cr, lot of 13 shares at ₹14,547, anchors 19 October. That is below the ₹1,150–1,220 the early reports carried and far below the ₹1,350–1,450 one source ran last week, so the valuation is better than the work on this page assumed on 7 October — which is the right direction for a rumour to have been wrong in. HD Fire Protect takes anchors today and opens tomorrow, and its premium recovered with Friday’s market: ₹55 back to ₹86, 31.7%, above where it was before Thursday’s fall. And five more open together on 15 October — Bonfiglioli, Tonbo Imaging, Zetwerk, Sahjanand Medical and Fusion CX — with bands announced today. Held: nothing in equities.

IPO	call	GMP	GMP %	expected listing	apply as	horizon	book
HD Fire Protect	ANCHORS TODAY, OPENS TOMORROW — decide on the book	₹86	+31.7%	~+29%	Retail — ₹14,905 at 55 shares	Listing-day sell. At 40.7× for 6.4% growth there is no hold case.	anchors today · opens 13 Oct
Jio Platform	BAND IS OUT — and it came in below the rumours	₹172	+15.4%	~+13%	Retail — 13 shares, ₹14,547. Quota 50% QIB / 35% retail / 15% HNI	Worth deciding properly now that the number exists.	anchors 19 Oct · opens 21 Oct
The 15 October five	BANDS TODAY — accounts owed by Wednesday	see note	+0.0%	—	Undecided — no accounts read yet	Revisit Wednesday with revenue, profit and the multiples	opens 15 Oct

Seven mainboard issues in one week, into a market MarketSmith classes as a Downtrend, is itself the story. Jio alone takes ₹30,213 Cr and Zetwerk ₹5,000 Cr; that money is drawn out of the same pool that has just seen four consecutive weekly falls in forex reserves and ₹12,943 Cr of foreign selling in a single session. A primary-market rush is not usually what a weak secondary market needs, and the sequencing matters for us: whatever is decided about HD Fire tomorrow is decided before any of the five that follow has shown a book. What this page does not yet have on those five is their accounts, and it will not pretend otherwise. The structures are known and they are the half that cannot be dressed: Bonfiglioli is 100% OFS by its Italian parent, Tonbo is an OFS of up to 1.22 Cr shares, Zetwerk is mixed — ₹2,600 Cr fresh against an OFS of 9.68 Cr shares. Revenue, profit and the multiples come before any call on them, and that work is owed by Wednesday morning, not Thursday.

HD Fire Protect

ANCHORS TODAY, OPENS TOMORROW — decide on the book

13–15 Oct · anchors today · allotment 16 Oct · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712 Cr at the top of the band · 100% OFS — 2.62 Cr shares, both sellers are the promoters

GMP recovered ₹55 → ₹86EBITDA margin 30.75%100% OFS — nothing to the company40.7× FY26 for 6.4% PAT growthopens into a Downtrendfive more issues open three days later

expected listing~+29%

GMP ₹86 · +31.7% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

GMP 9 Oct: ₹55 · 20.3%
GMP today: ₹86 · 31.7%
P/E post: 40.7×
market cap: ₹4,749 Cr
FY26 revenue: ₹489.28 Cr
FY26 PAT: ₹116.79 Cr
PAT growth: +6.4%
retail min: ₹14,905

The premium has now been ₹0, ₹80, ₹55 and ₹86 in four sessions, tracking the market rather than the company — which is the clearest evidence available that it is a sentiment number and not a forecast. Nothing in the accounts has moved: forty times earnings for 6.4% profit growth, with both sellers the promoters and the company receiving none of the ₹712 Cr. The anchor allocation prints today and it is the first verifiable number this issue has produced. Read it, and read the QIB book on day two. This page called thin institutional demand decisive four times in September and was wrong four times; the lesson taken was to quote those numbers rather than forecast from them, and that still holds when the premium is rising.

Jio Platform

BAND IS OUT — and it came in below the rumours

21–23 Oct · anchors 19 Oct · allotment 26 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band ₹1,065–1,119 · ~₹30,213 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS — up to 27 Cr shares, FV ₹10

band below the ₹1,150–1,220 reportsno OFS — every rupee goes in51.9% EBITDA margin35% retail quota on a ₹30,213 Cr issue₹27,500 Cr of it repays debtARPU grew under 4% on 524 M subscribers

expected listing~+13%

GMP ₹172 · +15.4% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹1,065–1,119
raise: ~₹30,213 Cr
lot: 13 sh · ₹14,547
FY26 revenue: ₹1,46,885 Cr
EBITDA margin: 51.9%
FY26 PAT: ₹30,049 Cr
PAT growth: +15.1%
GMP: ₹172 · 15.4%

The band is the thing this page has been waiting on since 7 October and it is friendlier than expected. Reports carried ₹1,150–1,220 and one ran ₹1,350–1,450; it priced at ₹1,065–1,119. On FY26 profit of ₹30,049 Cr that is a materially lower multiple than the ~43× the earlier valuation talk implied — the exact figure depends on the final share count, which the RHP settles, and this page will state it once rather than estimate it twice. What has not changed is where the money goes. The issue is entirely fresh, which is the one structural signal that cannot be dressed, but ₹27,500 Cr of roughly ₹30,213 Cr repays borrowings. That lifts earnings by removing interest rather than by building anything, and a deleveraging deserves a lower multiple than a growth raise, not a higher one. A 35% retail quota on an issue this size makes allotment genuinely plausible — still the strongest practical argument for applying.

The 15 October five

BANDS TODAY — accounts owed by Wednesday

15–19 Oct · Bonfiglioli · Tonbo · Zetwerk · Sahjanand Medical · Fusion CX · band announced today · Zetwerk ~₹5,000 Cr; others to confirm · Bonfiglioli 100% OFS · Tonbo OFS 1.22 Cr sh · Zetwerk ₹2,600 Cr fresh + 9.68 Cr OFS

Tonbo GMP 38.6% — highest on the boardBonfiglioli 100% OFS by its Italian parentZetwerk is the only one with fresh capitalno accounts read on any of themfive issues competing on one day

expected listing—

GMP see note · +0.0% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

Tonbo: band 700 · GMP ₹270 · 38.6%
Bonfiglioli: band 586 · GMP ₹175 · 29.9%
Zetwerk: band 151 · GMP ₹30 · 19.9%
Sahjanand Medical: band 344 · GMP ₹40 · 11.6%
Fusion CX: band 289 · GMP ₹25 · 8.7%

One card rather than five, because five calls cannot honestly be made from grey-market quotes and a structure. What is known is the structure, and it is the half that matters most to this page. Bonfiglioli is a pure secondary sale by Bonfiglioli S.p.A. of Italy — 4.32 Cr shares, the company receives nothing. Tonbo is an offer for sale of up to 1.22 Cr shares. Zetwerk is the only one raising real capital: ₹2,600 Cr fresh against an offer for sale of 9.68 Cr shares. The premiums already disagree sharply — 38.6% on Tonbo against 8.7% on Fusion CX — which is a spread worth understanding rather than following. Revenue, profit, margin and the multiple come before any call, and that work is owed Wednesday morning, with two clear sessions before the books open.

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