IPO review — 2026-10-14

Wednesday 14 October, written at 10:05. Tonbo Imaging’s accounts are in, and they are the opposite of what a 69% grey-market premium implies. Revenue fell 22.7% in FY26, profit fell 30%, operating cash flow was negative in both FY25 and FY26 while the company reported profits, working capital stretched from 152 days to 517, and Q1 FY27 closed with a ₹17.74 Cr loss. At ₹700 that is about 79 times earnings that are going backwards. This page owed these numbers today and they arrive as a refusal. HD Fire’s first real book is also in, and it is good: 4.62× on day one, with HNI at 11.38× and retail at 3.78×. It closes tomorrow. Fusion CX opened today — its dates moved from 15–19 to 14–16 October, so the window is live now rather than next week. Held: nothing in equities.

IPO	call	GMP	GMP %	expected listing	apply as	horizon	book
Tonbo Imaging India	AVOID — 79× for earnings falling 30%	₹485	+69.3%	not a forecast — see note	Do not apply.	No horizon. The accounts refuse it at any holding period.	opens 15 Oct
HD Fire Protect	BOOK IS STRONG — closes tomorrow, call stands	₹91	+33.6%	~+31%	Retail — ₹14,905 at 55 shares. One lot.	Listing-day sell, unchanged.	day 1: 4.62× · QIB 1.04× · HNI 11.38× · retail 3.78×
Fusion CX	OPENED TODAY — dates moved forward	₹34	+11.8%	~+9%	Undecided — accounts not read	—	open now
Jio Platform	FIRMING — anchors Monday	₹218	+19.5%	~+17%	Retail — 13 shares, ₹14,547	Decide on the anchor book, 19 October	anchors 19 Oct

The two issues on this page are the same structure and opposite businesses, and the grey market has them the wrong way round. Both are 100% offers for sale by existing holders; neither company receives a rupee. HD Fire earns 30% on equity and 40% on capital, converts its profit into cash, and asks 40.7× for 6.4% growth — expensive, which is why this page says sell it on listing rather than hold it. Tonbo asks roughly 79× for earnings that fell 30%, having burned cash in both of the last two years and with a quarter of losses already on the board. The premium on the second is more than double the premium on the first. That is what a theme does to a price. Defence has been the thing to own since Goodluck India was named sole supplier of 155 mm shells and Zen Technologies went after a ₹20,000 Cr tender, and Tonbo is the only listed-adjacent way to buy it this week. None of that is in the accounts. Four days ago this page wrote that a premium moving 58% in a session is information about sentiment and not about the company. The accounts have now confirmed which of the two it was.

Tonbo Imaging India

AVOID — 79× for earnings falling 30%

15–19 Oct · band ₹665–700 · ₹852.18 Cr · 100% OFS — 1,21,74,046 shares. The company receives nothing.

revenue −22.7% in FY26PAT −30% in FY26Q1 FY27 a ₹17.74 Cr LOSSnegative operating cash flow FY25 AND FY26working capital 152 → 280 → 517 days~79× FY26 earnings78.6% of FY26 revenue in H2gross margin 51.05%

expected listingnot a forecast — see note

GMP ₹485 · +69.3% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

FY25 revenue: ₹469.08 Cr
FY26 revenue: ₹362.65 Cr
FY25 PAT: ₹72.76 Cr
FY26 PAT: ₹50.88 Cr
FY26 EBITDA: ₹104.62 Cr
EBITDA margin: 28.85%
WC days FY26: 517
Q1 FY27: −₹17.74 Cr
diluted EPS FY26: ₹8.88
P/E at ₹700: ~79×
GMP: ₹485 · 69.3%

This page said on 13 October that no call belonged on Tonbo until the revenue, the profit and the multiple were read, and that a 61% premium was a reason to hurry that rather than skip it. Here they are, and they are bad in every line that matters. Revenue did not slow, it fell: ₹469.08 Cr to ₹362.65 Cr, down 22.7%. Profit fell 30%, from ₹72.76 Cr to ₹50.88 Cr. Q1 FY27 is already a loss of ₹17.74 Cr, so the decline is continuing into the year being sold. The cash tells the sharper story. Operating cash flow was negative in both FY25 and FY26 while the company reported profits in both — profit that does not become cash — and working-capital days went 152, then 280, then 517. A business taking seventeen months to convert working capital is financing its customers, and 78.6% of FY26 revenue landing in the second half says the order flow is lumpy as well. At ₹700 the multiple is about 79 times earnings that are going backwards, for a ₹4,010 Cr valuation, in an issue where every rupee of the ₹852 Cr goes to existing holders and none to the company. The grey market is bidding +69%. The accounts and the premium are telling opposite stories and only one of them is audited.

HD Fire Protect

BOOK IS STRONG — closes tomorrow, call stands

13–15 Oct · closes tomorrow · lists 21 Oct · band ₹258–271 · ₹712.31 Cr, entirely OFS · 100% OFS — 2,62,84,500 shares, both sellers are the promoters

day-1 book 4.62× overallHNI 11.38× on day oneanchor FULL at the top band, 71.88% domestic MFsRoE 30.17%, RoCE 40.33%40.7× for 6.4% PAT growth100% OFSQIB only 1.04× so far

expected listing~+31%

GMP ₹91 · +33.6% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

subscribed day 1: 4.62×
QIB: 1.04×
HNI: 11.38×
retail: 3.78×
anchor: ₹213.11 Cr at ₹271
GMP: ₹91 · 33.6%
P/E post: 40.7×
closes: 15 Oct

The exchange book is the half that can be verified, and day one came in at 4.62×. HNI at 11.38× is the number doing the work; retail at 3.78× on the first day of a three-day window is comfortable. QIB at 1.04× looks thin but is not: institutions routinely bid on the final day, and the anchor book — ₹213.11 Cr placed at the top of the band, 71.88% of it with domestic mutual funds — already showed up. Nothing changes in the call. It is still 40.7 times for 6.4% profit growth, still entirely a promoter exit, and the business underneath it is still genuinely good: 30% on equity, 40% on capital, and profit that becomes cash — which, set beside Tonbo on this same page, is worth saying out loud. One lot, retail, sold on listing. The window shuts tomorrow.

Fusion CX

OPENED TODAY — dates moved forward

14–16 Oct (was 15–19) · band ₹289 · to confirm · to confirm

dates moved 15–19 → 14–16 OctGMP 20 → 34 overnightlowest premium on the boardaccounts not read

expected listing~+9%

GMP ₹34 · +11.8% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: 289
GMP 13 Oct: ₹20 · 6.9%
GMP today: ₹34 · 11.8%
window: 14–16 Oct

Flagged because the dates moved and this page had it down for next week. It opened this morning, not on the 15th, so the window is live now and shuts on Friday. Its premium rose from ₹20 to ₹34 overnight along with everything else on the board, which followed yesterday’s 1.60% move in the Nifty rather than anything company-specific. No call: the accounts have not been read, and with Tonbo having just demonstrated what a premium can conceal, a number going up is not a reason to apply.

Jio Platform

FIRMING — anchors Monday

21–23 Oct · anchors 19 Oct · lists 28 Oct · band ₹1,065–1,119 · ~₹30,213 Cr · 100% fresh, no OFS

GMP 172 → 182 → 218 over three sessionsno OFS — the only one on the board35% retail quota₹27,500 Cr of it repays debt

expected listing~+17%

GMP ₹218 · +19.5% · less the 2.6 pt overstatement

band: ₹1,065–1,119
GMP 12 Oct: ₹172 · 15.4%
GMP 13 Oct: ₹182 · 16.3%
GMP today: ₹218 · 19.5%
lot: 13 sh · ₹14,547
anchors: 19 Oct

Three sessions of a rising premium — ₹172, ₹182, ₹218 — on a ₹30,213 Cr issue, which takes far more money to move than any other name here. It remains the only issue on the board raising fresh capital rather than paying an existing holder. That it also spends ₹27,500 Cr of the raise repaying borrowings is the standing caveat, and a deleveraging earns a lower multiple than a growth raise, not a higher one. The anchor book prints Monday 19 October, and on the evidence of HD Fire this week that is the number worth waiting for.

IPO review — apply, skip, avoid